【券商聚焦】国泰海通:未来五年地产行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段 看好行业迈入格局和盈利稳定

金吾财讯
Mar 16

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指,十四届全国人大四次会议表决通过关于国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要的决议。当前AH房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中所处地位不匹配。平稳发展奠定基调,行业迈入格局稳定。我们认为十四五和十五五期间,党中央对地产行业发展要求,房地产行业总量所处阶段存在明显差异。政策端,房地产行业高质量发展要求的提出,从防风险、提品质、促转型等多维度提供纲领性指引,为行业稳主体、稳总量、稳价格奠定了明确基调。基本面端,行业总量在持续大额回落后,在7-8万亿平基础上构建底部存在真实需求。通过十四五供给侧改革后,十五五蓝筹开发商应该具备更好市场竞争格局。基于以上判断,我们认为未来五年行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段,看好行业迈入格局和盈利稳定,蓝筹基本面持续优化阶段。该机构判断十五五纲要通过后,更多政策有望基于行业高质量发展定位尽快步入落实。自然资源部、国家林业和草原局联合发布《关于进一步做好自然资源要素保障的通知》,我们认为土地层面将严控新增用地指标,倒逼存量盘活利用,加速不同能级城市土地供应格局分化,超大城市和强二线城市进一步强化存量主导,普通二线及三四线城市则面临转型压力,需通过政策创新和市场化手段破解存量盘活瓶颈。

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