金吾财讯 | 化工用品股普涨，截至发稿，中国旭阳集团(01907)涨8.06%，武汉有机(02881)涨2.52%，中国三江化工(02198)涨1.64%，上海石油化工股份(00338)涨1.41%，彩客新能源(01986)涨1.20%。消息面上，中金公司发研报指，国家政策逐渐由能耗双控转为强调碳排放总量和强度双控，石化化工是重点行业之一。总量上，2024年中国石化化工行业碳排放量约16亿吨，在全国碳排放总量占比约13%。具体看，子行业碳排放分化，炼油、甲醇、氮肥、电石、乙烯等占比较大。化工已开启新一轮上行周期，供给端的刚性约束，是行业ROE显著抬升并维持长周期景气的关键。截至3月6日，基础化工（中信）P/B为2.94x，处于2012年以来的66%分位数。我们认为此轮行情更多源自于产能扩产进入尾声、供给侧“反内卷”政策落地等带来的估值修复，而基本面角度企业盈利水平仍处于偏底部位置，此后行业ROE的提升是进一步支撑股价上行的关键。
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