【券商聚焦】招银国际维持阿里巴巴(09988/BABA)“买入”评级 指消费业务复苏可期

金吾财讯
Yesterday

金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指,阿里巴巴(09988/BABA)3QFY26(财年截至 3 月)实现营收2,848 亿元人民币,同比增长 1.7%,较彭博一致预期低2%。季度调整后息税摊销前利润(EBITA)为234 亿元人民币,同比下降 57%,低于市场预期的 314 亿元人民币,主要因公司持续在即时零售(QC)、用户体验及技术领域加大投入。但云计算业务表现依旧亮眼,营收同比增速提升至36%,超出市场预期 2 个百分点。管理层表示客户管理收入已现复苏,1Q26至今同比增速回升至中个位数以上。管理层同时强调云计算营收环比增速将进一步加快,并重申即时零售业务发展目标:2028 财年GMV突破 1 万亿元人民币,2029 财年实现盈利。公司亦明确提出五年内实现云计算外部收入突破 1,000 亿美元的目标,对应年均复合增速超 40%,该增长将由模型即服务(MaaS)的旺盛需求支撑。

该机构持续看好阿里巴巴作为覆盖范围内 AI 主题核心受益标的之一,建议投资者着眼长期,看淡短期盈利压力。该机构微调基于分部估值法(SOTP)的目标价至203.7 美元(此前为 206.4 美元),维持“买入”评级。

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