金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中通快递(ZTO/02057)2025年净利润同比增长3%至人民币90.8亿元。根据该机构的计算，核心净利润同比下降6%至人民币90亿元，比该机构的预期高3%，但比彭博一致预期低3%。中通快递给予2026年包裹量增长10-13%的指引，并预计高于行业平均水平。同时，中通快递批准了一项新的股票回购计划，未来两年（自3月20号起）的最高预算为15亿美元。公司目标是年度股东回报（现金分红+股票回购）至少达到调整后净利润的50%。该机构将2026年和2027年的盈利预测分别上调了12%和19%, 主要由于更高的单票利润和更低的税率假设。该机构预计反内卷政策将在可预见的未来有助于支撑单票价格。该机构上调中通美股/港股目标价至29.7美元/233港元，基于17倍2026年预期市盈率，相当于历史平均水平减0.5个标准差（此前为1个标准差）。该机构将估值折让收窄以反映盈利增速的潜在反弹。维持“买入”评级。
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