金吾财讯 | 在中东冲突升级后,市场对2026年12月欧洲央行政策利率的预期上调了55个基点以上,同时交易员也大幅下调了美联储的降息预期。摩根大通股票策略团队在最新研报中认为,“这种预期可能并不合理”。若冲突持续叠加高能源价格,将对经济增长形成抑制,这可能迫使央行对通胀冲高视而不见。若冲突最终引发经济衰退,央行加息的可能性微乎其微;而若冲突局势缓和,短期的通胀飙升也难以成为央行加息的理由。
金吾财讯 | 在中东冲突升级后,市场对2026年12月欧洲央行政策利率的预期上调了55个基点以上,同时交易员也大幅下调了美联储的降息预期。摩根大通股票策略团队在最新研报中认为,“这种预期可能并不合理”。若冲突持续叠加高能源价格,将对经济增长形成抑制,这可能迫使央行对通胀冲高视而不见。若冲突最终引发经济衰退,央行加息的可能性微乎其微;而若冲突局势缓和,短期的通胀飙升也难以成为央行加息的理由。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.