金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指，美伊冲突以来，原油价格突破100美元/桶，美元指数升破100。油价与美元同步走强，与1970年代石油危机时美元大幅贬值的历史经验截然相反。我们认为，这一差异的关键原因是美国能源结构已发生根本性转变——美国已从石油净进口国转变为净出口国，当油价上涨时，其本土石油供给稳定性更强，增长相对更有韧性；与原油相关的出口收入增加，贸易条件改善，也对美元形成支撑。与此同时，此次原油供应冲击范围超过2022年俄乌冲突，亚洲新兴市场国家受到波及，增强资本回流美元动力。叠加美元流动性环境已从充裕转向收紧，任何避险情绪的升温都可能放大美元升值压力。往前看，在霍尔木兹海峡封锁未解除之前，美元或维持强势。但如果地缘冲突升级加剧金融风险暴露，美国经济也可能面临更大下行风险，削弱美元上涨的动力。
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