金吾财讯 | 花旗表示，随着全球油价飙升推高通胀，韩国央行今年可能将政策利率上调至3%。花旗经济学家Jin-Wook Kim在一份报告中写道，预计韩国央行将加息两次，每次25个基点，一次在7月，一次在10月，使基准利率接近3%。由于物价压力被证明比此前预期更持久，这些举措将标志着在长期暂停后重启紧缩周期。
受伊朗冲突相关干扰影响，布伦特原油近期可能升至每桶110至120美元，然后在今年晚些时候回落。这一价格飙升—相当于在已然高企的油价基础上，未来12个月再上涨至多20%，这对通胀的影响将大于对经济增长的影响。油价上涨对通胀的不对称显著影响，将促使韩国央行采取更强硬的立场，尤其是考虑到历史上宽松的金融状况。
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