A parade of central bank policy meetings this week means the impact of surging oil prices on growth and inflation forecasts, as well as the path of interest rates over the coming months are all in focus.

The Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will all publish rate decisions over the next two days, with each of them influenced by the U.S.-led war with Iran and its stoking of global crude prices since the start of the year.

The messaging from central bank leaders, and outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is crucial for a market that appears to be looking through the conflict with cautious optimism.

The S&P 500 is aiming for a third consecutive day of gains Wednesday, the longest winning streak in a month, as oil prices stabilize, earnings forecasts improve, and investors return to stocks in the beaten-down tech sector.

Indications from central bank policymakers that they're also prepared to look through sky-high crude -- in terms of determining the current oil price spike as having a temporary impact on inflation pressures -- will likely add more fuel to the market's improving risk sentiment.

A hawkish tilt, on the other hand, could quickly snuff out the nascent rally, trigger a spike in Treasury bond yields, and deepen the retreat into cash by the world's biggest investors.

Facts on the ground in the Persian Gulf region would certainly point to the latter -- Israel has stepped up its campaign in Lebanon, Iran's drone attacks continue and reports suggest President Donald Trump's plans to secure the Strait of Hormuz could extend the conflict well into the summer.

Looking through $100 oil is one thing, doing so when central banks can't or won't is quite another.

-- Martin Baccardax

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Trump Expresses Frustration With NATO Allies. But Enough to Quit?

President Donald Trump has upped the pressure on European allies to assist with the Iran conflict, suggesting that he might reconsider ties to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization over their reluctance to pitch in. His frustration with NATO has grown, calling their refusal to contribute militarily a "very foolish mistake."

   -- But experts Barron's spoke with say doing so is unlikely, not only 
      because it could cause legal headaches for the president back home, but 
      also because it would weaken his ability to pressure NATO members going 
      forward. NATO's mutual defense pact only applies to attacks in North 
      America and Europe. 
 
   -- Trump said Tuesday he doesn't need Congress to exit the alliance, but a 
      2023 federal law requires approval from two-thirds of senators for the 
      U.S. to withdraw from NATO. Trump's lawyers could challenge that, 
      University of Chicago law professor Curtis Bradley said, and it would 
      likely wind up in a lengthy court battle. 
 
   -- Leaving NATO would weaken the U.S. influence over Europe on securing 
      their own borders, such as their financing of Ukraine's war with Russia, 
      which is also in the U.S. interest. CATO Institute's Katherine Thompson 
      doesn't see much appetite to leave despite Trump's criticism. 
 
   -- "These kinds of comments muddy the water in our strategy," Thompson said. 
      For the EU to join the conflict would be politically unpopular with 
      Europeans, partly because the war has already resulted in surging energy 
      costs across Europe and partly because there is no clear end to the 
      military operation. 

What's Next: Scott Anderson, a fellow at Brookings Institution, says Europe sees the situation as a sticky morass. But it could come to the aid of the U.S. once the military operation ends. Then allies could be more willing to help sweep the Strait of Hormuz for mines, for example, or provide other security in the region.

-- Anita Hamilton

Scenarios If Kevin Warsh's Fed Confirmation Is Delayed

There's still no clear path to a transition to the next Federal Reserve chair after Jerome Powell's term in that seat expires May 15. Kevin Warsh, the former Fed governor nominated by President Trump to fill the role, has no Senate confirmation hearing date. Legal battles, politics, and questions remain.

   -- If Warsh isn't confirmed by May 15, the Senate could confirm him before 
      the Fed's June meeting, and the transition would happen relatively close 
      to schedule. Alternatively, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson could step in 
      until confirmation. Or Powell could stay on and continue to chair the 
      meetings. 
 
   -- In practice, it isn't clear how any of those scenarios would unfold, 
      because the Federal Reserve Act leaves room for interpretation. But in 
      theory, the outcome depends on two things: Whether a one-man blockade in 
      the Senate breaks, and what Powell decides to do next. 
 
   -- A Justice Department criminal investigation of Powell is key. It's 
      related to testimony he made before the Senate last June that prosecutors 
      say may have contained discrepancies. Powell has called the investigation 
      a political weapon. A federal judge quashed grand jury subpoenas, and the 
      U.S. Attorney vowed to appeal. 
 
   -- That investigation and its aftermath appear to have made a smooth handoff 
      less likely. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican on the 
      committee considering the nomination won't support confirmation until the 
      investigation is dropped. Just one defection is enough to keep the matter 
      from a floor vote. 

What's Next: TD Cowen analysts say the probability of Powell remaining past May 15 has risen. The White House says it's working with Congress swiftly to confirm Warsh, but with no hearing date set, Tillis's blockade in place, and a looming Senate recess from March 30 through April 10, that window is narrowing.

-- Nicole Goodkind

Airlines Face Higher Fuel Costs. They Have Ways Around It.

Top executives from Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and United Airlines among other big U.S. carriers have updated their outlooks given current challenges, including the effects of the Iran conflict on air travel. They said that despite soaring jet fuel prices caused by the war, their outlooks remain optimistic.

   -- Delta expects first-quarter earnings within its initial range of 50 cents 
      to 90 cents a share, and revenue to rise by a high-single-digit 
      percentage. That's a touch higher than it previously forecast for the 
      current quarter. Consumer and corporate trends have both accelerated, it 
      said. 
 
   -- Travel demand remains strong, and carriers have been able to make up for 
      higher fuel costs. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby expects "low 
      double-digit margins" this year, up from its previous goal of adding one 
      point of margin a year. It expects full-year revenue to fully offset its 
      jet fuel price increase. 
 
   -- To do that, United needs to boost a key financial yardstick called 
      passenger revenue per available seat-mile by another 8.5 points, he said. 
      And so far, the 10 biggest booking weeks of United's history have been 
      the first 10 weeks of this year, he said. That key PRASM measure is up 
      double digits this quarter. 
 
   -- JetBlue Airways also said strong travel demand is offsetting rising fuel 
      costs and operational disruptions, and raised its first-quarter 
      unit-revenue outlook to 5% to 7%, from flat to 0.4% growth. Southwest 
      Airlines reaffirmed first-quarter EPS guidance of 45 cents a share and 
      full-year EPS of $4 a share. 

What's Next: Deutsche Bank research analysts wrote that if fuel prices remain elevated for the next several months, airlines will begin cutting off-peak flights and grounding less fuel-efficient aircraft. The wild card is air travel demand as U.S. and global economies absorb significantly higher energy prices, they wrote.

-- Callum Keown and Janet H. Cho

Oklo Notches 2025 Loss, but Secures Its First Nuclear License

Nuclear start-up Oklo gave investors the news they were waiting for on its path to profitability: confirmation that it had secured its first license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The catch is that the license applies to Atomic Alchemy, a wholly-owned subsidiary Oklo acquired in 2025.

   -- The license allows Atomic Alchemy to handle, process, and distribute 
      isotopes extracted from spent nuclear fuel that can be applied to 
      diagnosing and treating certain diseases. It lets Atomic Alchemy begin 
      commercial sales from its Idaho radiochemistry laboratory, a new revenue 
      source for the company. 
 
   -- Oklo separately announced an agreement with the Energy Department to 
      support the design, construction, and operation of its first reactor at 
      Idaho National Laboratory under the DoE's Reactor Pilot Program. 
 
   -- Oklo reported a full-year net loss of $105.7 million, or 72 cents a share, 
      in 2025. That is a wider net loss than the year earlier. Oklo's operating 
      expenses last year more than doubled to $139.2 million from a year 
      earlier. Oklo ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, 
      and marketable debt after some equity raises. 
 
   -- Oklo said in a securities filing that it expects its losses to increase 
      over the next several years as it continues to expand and develop. It 
      also said it may need additional capital from external sources. 

What's Next: Oklo's advanced fast reactors are still awaiting approval from the NRC to sell electricity and generate revenue. Still, the license it received Tuesday helps Oklo legitimize its business model as it pursues the commercial production of power by 2028.

-- Mackenzie Tatananni and Janet H. Cho

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