金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，腾讯音乐(01698/TME)公布4Q25业绩：总营收同比增长16%至86.4亿元，较一致预期高3%，主要得益于非会员音乐业务表现超预期（同比+41%）；非IFRS净利润同比增长9%至24.9亿元，符合一致预期。2025总营收/非IFRS净利润分别同比增长16%/25%至329亿元/95.9亿元。
展望FY26，该机构预计总营收同比增长10%，其中音乐会员/非会员收入分别同比增长6%/25%。管理层预计，行业竞争加剧将导致音乐会员收入短期承压，公司将加大内容与营销投入以巩固核心竞争壁垒。考虑投入增加与竞争加剧，该机构下调FY26-27E盈利预测4-10%以及长期现金流的预测。基于DCF估值，该机构将目标价由28.0美元下调至20.0美元。维持买入评级。
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