MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

Eurozone harmonized CPI; trading update for Prudential

Opening Call:

European stock futures were mixed after Asia stocks also traded mixed. U.S. Treasurys fell, the dollar edged up. Gold and oil fell.

Equities:

European equity futures were mixed after Wall Street closed higher, with energy companies leading the S&P 500 as oil prices resumed their ascent as more infrastructure came under attack in the Middle East.

Markets have continued to trade with a "constructive tone," though gains have been modest ahead of the FOMC meeting, said Sally Auld, group chief economist at National Australia Bank.

With the U.S. central bank widely expected to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, attention will be on any forward guidance and comments on the impact of the Middle East conflict.

"Focus will be on shifts in the dot plot in the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections and on Chairman [Jerome] Powell's assessment of the geopolitical situation," the InTouch Capital Markets team said in a commentary.

Forex:

The U.S. dollar held steady ahead of the FOMC's policy decision due today, where U.S. central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

"Focus will be on shifts in the dot plot in the accompanying Summary of Economic Projections and on Chair Powell's assessment of the geopolitical situation," said InTouch Capital Markets analysts team.

"Since markets are no longer certain on pricing for another rate cut this year, the question may be the extent to which the Fed validates this shift in the wake of the energy price shock," the team added.

Bonds:

Treasurys gained a bit of ground sending yields lower. An auction of new 20-year bonds was met with "solid" demand, with bidding from non-dealers slightly above the recent average, said Vail Hartman of BMO Capital Markets.

Traders are expected to be attentive to a new Fed dot plot, and whether fewer officials will project 2026 rate cuts given the inflationary threat of the Iran war, as well as to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about how the war is affecting the committee's thinking.

Energy:

Brent oil prices are likely to stay elevated around $100 per barrel through mid-2026, OCBC Group Research's Sim Moh Siong said.

"The U.S.-Iran conflict has entered its third week with no credible path to de--escalation," the commodity strategist said.

Also, flows through Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, and no U.S. partners have committed to President Trump's call for joint military action to reopen the channel.

OCBC lifted its quarterly forecasts for Brent and WTI oil prices from 1Q 2026 through 1Q 2027: For 1Q 2026, it now sees Brent at $100.00 per barrel versus $70.00 a barrel projected previously.

Metals:

Gold edged lower in early trade on possible position adjustments before the FOMC decision due later today.

While the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, "any hawkish indication regarding how long policy may remain on hold could lift [Treasury] yields and the dollar, creating additional headwind for non-yielding assets like gold," said FXEM's Abdelaziz Albogdady in an email.

"Only one rate cut is expected later this year at the moment, although the Fed's economic projections and comments could affect monetary policy forecasts," said the manager of Market Research & Fintech Strategy.

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Silver futures were lower after it shed nearly 11% in the past five trading days--the longest losing streak in nearly a year.

Silver's upside looks limited ahead of the Fed's rate decision.

"While rates are expected to remain unchanged, forward guidance, comments, and economic projections will be critical," said Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital in a note.

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Iron ore prices fell, with prices unlikely to stay elevated for long as supply continues to outpace demand, Nanhua Futures analysts said.

Tensions around the Middle East strait may push more cargo toward China, although higher fuel costs could slow delivery times, they noted.

Port inventories remain high, they said, noting investors are advised to take profits at highs.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Powell's Second-to-Last Meeting Previews an Increasingly Divided Fed

Uncertainty fueled by the war in Iran is expected to reinforce a broad agreement among most Federal Reserve officials to sit tight at their meeting this week. That will make any dissenting votes all the more notable as Jerome Powell nears the close of his tenure as Fed chair.

Divisions at the Fed have been building. What until recently had been a culture of near-unanimous votes has given way to more dissent, particularly from the governors President Trump has placed on the board. Over the past year, his three appointees have broken from the majority, including two at the Fed's last meeting. This week, all three are candidates to dissent in favor of a cut.

Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One

Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official, strolled confidently in dark sunglasses and a black coat Friday through a rally of regime loyalists in central Tehran. It was his first public appearance in a war in which he was a known target. "Brave people. Brave officials. Brave leaders. This combination cannot be defeated," he wrote later on X.

Four days later, he was dead. Early Tuesday morning, Israel's intelligence services found Larijani gathered with other officials at a hideout on the outskirts of Tehran and killed him with a missile strike.

Nvidia Says It Is Restarting Production of AI Chips for Sale in China

SAN JOSE, Calif.-Nvidia has restarted manufacturing of its H200 processors for sale in China, Chief Executive Jensen Huang said Tuesday, signaling a possible shift in the chip giant's fortunes in the world's second-largest market.

Nvidia and the Trump administration have been involved in a complicated tango over the sales of its advanced artificial-intelligence chips in China. Last April, the Commerce Department halted exports of the H20, a processor Nvidia designed especially for the China market, but reversed course in August.

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Expected Major Events for Wednesday

08:00/SVK: Feb Harmonized CPI

08:00/AUT: Feb CPI

10:00/MLT: Feb Harmonised CPI

10:00/EU: Feb Harmonised CPI

11:00/POR: Feb PPI

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 18, 2026 01:00 ET (05:00 GMT)

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