金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，春节后至今猪价持续下跌至10元/公斤位置，行业步入现金流层面的亏损，且出栏体重持续被动增加，反映行业库存压力仍未完全释放，猪价磨底持续性较强。当前市场演绎的是行业去产能逻辑，亏损加深背景下，行业产能去化或再迎加速，主要包括（1）行业已由亏折旧步入亏现金阶段。（2）仔猪价格旺季出现调整。（3）玉米和豆粕占到生猪生产成本的约70%，3月以来，玉米豆粕价格震荡上行，饲料企业上调猪料价格，养殖成本上涨也将加剧亏损。综上来看，当前行业亏损面仍有可能进一步走扩，产能去化或再迎加速。从历史猪周期复盘看，生猪板块在能繁母猪存栏去化阶段和猪周期反转阶段都有较好表现，但整体上投资越发提前，2021-2022年和2023-2024年这两轮猪周期中，能繁产能去化阶段的生猪板块股价涨幅大于猪价反转阶段。复盘2023年产能去化行情，板块股价往往启动于猪价加速下跌、猪价亏损后仔猪价加速下跌两大阶段，而在当下这样产能去化的前半程，猪价超预期下跌是行情的重要催化，且当前板块位置较低，重申重点推荐生猪养殖板块。
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