金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，2026年开年经济数据边际回升，较2025年底出现一定幅度的改善。不过，经济数据的边际回升对债市中枢的压力预计有限。第一，当前债市的主线仍在输入性通胀强度及其相应的情绪变化，内部因素仍处于次要观察点；第二，当前的经济基本面回升主要相对于去年四季度，而去年四季度并未以基本面为核心对债市进行定价，因而当前的基本面变化也较难成为债市中枢浮动的决定性因素。综合来看，短期内债市预计仍呈现震荡特征，中期内可观察降息节奏与基本面数据回升的持续性。
金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，2026年开年经济数据边际回升，较2025年底出现一定幅度的改善。不过，经济数据的边际回升对债市中枢的压力预计有限。第一，当前债市的主线仍在输入性通胀强度及其相应的情绪变化，内部因素仍处于次要观察点；第二，当前的经济基本面回升主要相对于去年四季度，而去年四季度并未以基本面为核心对债市进行定价，因而当前的基本面变化也较难成为债市中枢浮动的决定性因素。综合来看，短期内债市预计仍呈现震荡特征，中期内可观察降息节奏与基本面数据回升的持续性。
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