3月17日，穆迪分析首席经济学家赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示，如果油价在未来几周内持续维持高位，美国经济将很难避免陷入衰退。他指出，只要霍尔木兹海峡仍实质上对油轮交通关闭，美国经济前景就会持续恶化。在伊朗冲突爆发前，穆迪利用机器学习模型建立的领先指标已显示，美国未来12个月内出现经济衰退的机率为49%。
赞迪预期，下一次公布数据时，该模型显示的衰退机率将升至50%或更高。赞迪提醒，历史经验显示油价飙升往往是经济衰退的前兆。自第二次世界大战以来，除了2020年新冠疫情引发的短暂衰退外，每一次美国经济衰退之前都伴随着油价大幅上涨。
美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.