金吾财讯 | 中金公司发研报指，美国面临供给不足，而中国面临需求不足，这意味着中东冲突这种供给冲击对美国的负面影响或将明显大于中国。中东冲突以来，中国股市表现好于美国也说明投资者对中美经济和市场的信心不同。我们认为，中东冲突或将增添全球滞胀风险，间接增添我国出口的不确定性，但鉴于中国对海外能源的依赖明显低于欧日韩等竞争对手，再加上我国技术进步提速，出口份额有可能得到提升。2026年中国实际GDP增速可能小幅低于去年，但名义增速或将上升，不过行业间利润分化可能加剧。当然，如果外部冲击持续加大，政策对冲力度可以加码以顺利实现增长目标。
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