金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，中国内地1-2月经济数据全面超预期，名义价格实质性回暖。2026年开局，中国内地宏观经济展现出极强的韧性与向上弹性，1-2月各项核心数据全线好于市场预期，迎来高质量的“开门红”。具体来看，工业生产在出口的高景气带动下加速扩张，实体融资与排产节奏明显提速；消费和固定资产投资增速双双反弹，基建发力与春节错峰效应起到关键的托底作用。物价水平出现实质性回暖，2月核心通胀大幅回暖，PPI降幅持续收窄，名义价格的同步修复为全年经济企稳奠定了坚实基础。伴随稳增长政策靠前发力以及资金直达机制的落地，实体经济的内生动能有望进一步增强。短期内，外贸层面的强劲表现将继续为2季度制造业景气度提供充裕的缓冲垫；而随着设备更新与消费品“以旧换新”等结构性政策在各地的细化与深化，内需的复苏趋势大概率得以延续。宏观名义增长的温和回升将直接有利于微观企业盈利预期的改善与居民资产负债表的修复，整体宏观经济运行大概率仍将保持“生产偏强、内需回稳、价格改善”的组合。
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