油价暴涨,央行加息?市场的定价可能过头了

华尔街见闻
4 hours ago

从中东局势升级到油价高企,全球利率市场在过去两周上演了一轮急促的"鹰派再定价"。然而,据追风交易台,摩根大通、瑞银与高盛的最新策略报告不约而同指向同一结论:市场将"油价上涨等于央行加息"的线性逻辑定价得过于激进,而对油价冲击的增长代价,反而低估了。再定价的规模已有具体刻度:欧洲央行2026年政策利率预期被上调逾55个基点,联邦基金期货本月以来削减了约40个基点的降息预期,美欧两年期收益率各上行约...

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