金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，3月16日三部委印发氢能新政，虽然5个城市群规模和80亿总补贴低于该机构预期，但核心转向“高质量自我造血”；重卡最高补贴功率从110kW大幅跃升至280kW超预期，单车补贴力度亦远超该机构预期；同时通过设定单企积分上限破除地方保护，加速行业出清。更多补贴倾向于补能价格的下降切中行业痛点：政策明确2030年终端氢价降至25元/公斤，验证了该机构之前的观点：补能成本是燃料电池汽车TCO盈亏平衡的关键；该机构此前预计2027年氢价降至28元/公斤时，即使在比新一轮政策更低的补贴下，49吨氢能重卡TCO将低于柴油车，行业将从“政策输血”正式转向“市场造血”。该机构指，在补贴总额受限的背景下，市场份额将加速向具备全产业链整合能力的龙头集中，建议重点关注在大功率系统具有成本技术优势、在制氢端超前布局的重塑能源(02570)。
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