ChainCatcher 消息，Greeks.live 宏观研究员 Adam 在 X 平台发文表示，本周四凌晨两点将会公布本月的美联储议息决议，目前期货市场显示 99% 概率维持不变，下月议息会议决议，目前市场认为 97% 概率维持不变，美联储在最近两个月对市场的影响可能都相对有限。
目前比特币在 74,000 附近震荡，贪婪指数处于中性：1、鹰派信号：如果点阵图显示 2026 只有 1 次甚至 0 次降息，市场预期下降，流动性紧缩，BTC 极大概率回测 68,000 美元支撑位。2、鸽派惊喜：只要鲍威尔提到“通胀可控”或“关注劳动力市场”，流动性预期改善将直接冲击 800,000 美元关口。3、X 变量：凯文·沃什 (Kevin Warsh) 特朗普提名的准新主席 Warsh 的政策偏好比 Powell 更难捉摸。市场最怕的就是“政策真空期”或“鹰派换班”。在 4 月会议前，机构资金可能会选择避险出货，导致山寨币（Altcoins）出现剧烈波动。
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