伊朗战争爆发以来,国际油价已从2026年初的60美元/桶急升至100美元上方,但华尔街机构警告,这可能远非终点。油价的最终走向,取决于一个关键变量:霍尔木兹海峡封锁究竟能持续多久。伯恩斯坦能源团队围绕封锁时长构建了三种情景模型:若封锁维持一个月,布伦特峰值约100美元/桶;若延续至三个月,峰值攀升至140美元;若长达六个月,峰值可能触及170美元/桶。伯恩斯坦将一个月封锁视为基准情景,但同时...
Source Link伊朗战争爆发以来,国际油价已从2026年初的60美元/桶急升至100美元上方,但华尔街机构警告,这可能远非终点。油价的最终走向,取决于一个关键变量:霍尔木兹海峡封锁究竟能持续多久。伯恩斯坦能源团队围绕封锁时长构建了三种情景模型:若封锁维持一个月,布伦特峰值约100美元/桶;若延续至三个月,峰值攀升至140美元;若长达六个月,峰值可能触及170美元/桶。伯恩斯坦将一个月封锁视为基准情景,但同时...
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