高盛合伙人、对冲基金业务全球主管Tony Pasquariello表示，尽管对冲基金降低敞口，资产管理公司和系统化交易者也大举卖出指数期货，但股市仓位尚未出现“真正的投降式”抛售。

　　“直白地说：市场当然比我聪明，但我很惊讶市场参与者并没有表现出更强的担忧，”Pasquariello在一份报告中写道。

　　他指出，历史经验显示，在油价飙升的阶段，股市本应出现更大幅度的下跌，过去类似情形下，股市平均跌幅为12%。这让Pasquariello担心，投资者正在“低估潜在的尾部下行风险”。不过他补充称，多头或许押注美国经济增长的持久性；要真正破坏当前的投资叙事，可能需要的不止是油价飙升。

　　Pasquariello写道：“即便大趋势依然良好，我认为简化投资组合、适度提高现金水平也是合理的。”

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责任编辑：李桐

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