金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，创新实业(02788)2025年净利润同比增长33%至27.3亿元人民币，超出该机构预期5%，但低于彭博一致预期2%。创新建议派发末期股息每股0.77港元，派息率约为54%，高于该机构预期。同时，创新宣布两项关联交易，包括：(1)以5.26亿元人民币收购山东创源（即现有氧化铝业务）剩余41.5%的股权；(2)以10亿元人民币收购一家煤炭开采业务（通辽智慧矿业）。
该机构认为，从长远来看，创新增加其氧化铝业务的配置是相对合理举措（尽管目前处于下行周期）。然而，该机构认为收购煤炭开采业务略有负面，主要由于创新在电解铝的能源结构上已逐步将煤炭发电转向可再生能源发电。尽管如此，鉴于创新强劲的产能增长（沙特项目）以及在中国成本下降的巨大潜力，该机构仍维持正面看法。维持“买入”评级，目标价32港元不变（基于2026年预期市盈率13倍）。由于这两项收购需要股东批准，该机构尚未对其加入盈利预测。
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