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文 | 新浪财经 李欣然
在当今全球面临气候危机、能源波动与经济转型多重挑战的背景下，一个根本性问题日益凸显：经济增长与可持续发展究竟能否兼得？长期以来，“权衡取舍”似乎是不变的铁律——环保意味着牺牲效益，清洁能源意味着牺牲可负担性，绿色转型意味着牺牲竞争力。然而，近年来技术进步的加速与市场实践的积累，正在悄然改写这一传统叙事。
近期，新浪财经对话了牛津大学史密斯企业与环境学院（Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment）代理院长Sam Fankhauser教授。Fankhauser教授从ESG投资回报、能源结构与企业转型等维度，系统阐述了他对可持续经济未来的观察。在他看来，关于“绿色代价”的许多担忧，实际上源于对趋势的误读或对旧有观念的惯性坚守。他指出，随着清洁能源成本持续下降、ESG投资逻辑日益成熟，曾经被视为“两难”的选择正逐渐让位于协同共赢。更重要的是，全球南方国家有望借助阳光地带的自然禀赋，迎来能源生产率跃升的历史性机遇；而企业能否在这场转型中胜出，关键不在于是否拥抱绿色，而在于是否具备远见、领导力与适应变革的能力。
牛津大学史密斯企业与环境学院代理院长Sam Fankhauser教授超越短期波动：ESG导向投资并非收益的牺牲
Fankhauser教授表示，他本人虽非投资者，但多年来一直与投资者和融资机构打交道。Fankhauser教授指出，这些专业人士都不约而同地告诉他同一个道理：长期来看，财务回报与ESG目标之间并不存在冲突。Fankhauser教授提到，其中有些人甚至通过数据分析，对比了传统投资组合与ESG导向投资组合的长期回报，发现持有后者并不会带来收益上的损失，甚至还可能具有优势。在 Fankhauser教授看来，有证据表明，例如能效等级较高的住房对抵押贷款机构而言信用风险更低——虽然我们尚不确定其中原因，但事实确实如此。
Fankhauser教授强调，短期市场波动当然总是存在，比如俄乌冲突和伊朗近期紧张局势引发的能源价格飙升，为化石燃料企业带来了高额利润，资本也重新回流到该行业。但他认为，这种资金追逐的不过是短期套利机会；而秉持长期视角的耐心资本能够洞察这些周期性影响之外的价值——从长远来看，那些具备高社会标准、尊重环境约束并坚持良好治理结构的投资，其结构性优势是显而易见的。
当可持续变得可负担：能源不可能三角的破解之路
Fankhauser教授表示，“能源不可能三角”（即能源可负担性、能源安全与环境可持续性三者无法同时实现）已不再像这一说法刚提出时那般显著了。Fankhauser教授指出，发生变化的关键在于，以中国为主导，清洁能源成本下降得如此之快，以至于太阳能和风能如今已成为优先选择的能源技术。他认为，在绝大多数的投资情境下，它们比化石燃料更便宜。Fankhauser教授强调，储能技术也是如此，这使得可预测的清洁能源也变得越来越具备经济性。这意味着，能源可负担性与环境可持续性如今已经可以齐头并进。在他看来，近期资本成本的上升而使得可再生能源的融资成本升高并未改变这一局面，因为建造燃气发电厂的成本同样也在上涨。
Fankhauser教授解释道，这是一个面向未来的论述，关注的是从现在开始的投资。他提到，许多目前仍在运行的风能和太阳能设施，其成本依然较高，因为它们是在成本大幅下降之前投产的。我们仍需为早期阶段积累的经验教训付出代价，但这些学习成本是一次性的。
接着，Fankhauser教授探讨了能源安全与环境可持续性之间的联系。他指出，同样，这两个目标现在也可以协同实现。他认为，化石能源容易受到石油、煤炭和天然气价格剧烈市场波动的影响。此外，大多数国家并不拥有本土资源，其燃料需求依赖进口——有些进口来自与其利益一致的国家，有些则不然。而一个可再生能源发电设施，一旦建成，就不再依赖于国际化石燃料市场，只依赖于风和阳光。
最后，Fankhauser教授回应了为何许多人仍然坚信“能源不可能三角”。在他看来，答案是惯性使然。他强调，人们往往难以迅速放弃根深蒂固的观念，而且化石燃料仍然代表着强大的市场利益。但Fankhauser教授坚信，清洁能源的经济性正变得越来越难以忽视。
能源效率跃升：可再生能源驱动下的经济生产率提升
Fankhauser教授指出，他上面所讲述的关于价格低廉的可再生能源的故事，在全球南方（发展中国家）尤为突出，比在全球北方（发达国家）要明显得多。在他看来，这是因为大多数发展中国家地处阳光地带，日照条件特别好，因此可再生能源尤其便宜。他同时提到，风能的成本也有所下降，但幅度远不及太阳能，所以像北欧这样地处风带的国家反而处于相对劣势。
Fankhauser教授介绍了他和研究团队的测算结果：在可再生能源情景下，全球南方的能源生产率将比目前提高一倍以上。他解释道，这里所说的能源生产率，指的是每单位欧元或人民币投资所能产生的可用能源量。他认为，生产率之所以能大幅提升，不仅因为可再生能源本身便宜，还因为电力相比化石燃料效率高得多——浪费的能源更少，且可用的能源更多。由于能源是一种无处不在的基础投入，Fankhauser教授强调，更高的能源生产率最终会转化为整体经济生产率的提升。
因此，Fankhauser教授认为，阳光地带的国家将迎来巨大的经济机遇。他们将在能源密集型产品和活动领域获得新的比较优势。但要抓住这一机遇，他明确指出，这些国家需要的不仅仅是廉价的能源，还需要技能娴熟的劳动力、有利的投资环境、稳定的宏观经济以及可预测的规则和法规。在Fankhauser教授看来，这才是发展中国家面临的真正挑战：不是如何摆脱化石燃料，而是如何创造有利条件，充分利用正在涌现的新机遇。
最后，Fankhauser教授以中国为例，指出中国在太阳能光伏和电动汽车等技术领域建立经济领先地位的方式，向世界展示了如何做到这一点。他强调，整个世界，包括西方国家在内，在绿色产业政策方面有很多可以向中国学习的地方。
远见、领导力与专业技能：企业可持续转型的重要因素
Fankhauser教授指出，他上面所勾勒的经济机遇，同时也是商业机遇。他认为，这些机遇需要由一个个企业家、投资者和企业去把握，而这其中是有风险的。他提醒道，过去的结构性转型表明，一项新技术代表了未来，并不意味着每笔投资就自动能盈利。他举例说，回想一下19世纪中叶“铁路狂热”时期有多少资金打了水漂，或者20世纪末互联网泡沫时期的巨额亏损，就能明白这一点。
因此，Fankhauser教授强调，企业需要清晰的战略、远见卓识、领导力和专业技能。在他看来，经济转型在很大程度上将由新的市场进入者推动，它们将以更优质的产品和商业模式颠覆市场，例如中国的汽车制造商。但他同时也指出，如果传统企业能够主动拥抱转型，它们同样可以蓬勃发展。
Fankhauser教授认为，这正是大学可以发挥作用的地方。他观察到，商业领袖、中层职场人士以及学生群体，对于获取21世纪清洁经济所需技能有着巨大的需求。他提到，牛津大学开设的可持续企业相关课程大受欢迎。他详细介绍了教学内容：教授学生科学基础知识，让他们理解气候变化及其带来的物理风险；教授可持续经济学，让他们理解有效的政策干预和结构性变革；此外还教授可持续金融、系统转型、法律、领导力以及商业组织。他表示，当学生们毕业时，他和同事们希望这些学生能带着让全球经济可持续发展的雄心壮志和技能，踏入这个世界。
以下为英文原文：
Q: We've seen that you have a background in financial institutions, including banks in your early career. From the perspectives of risk and return, do you believe that incorporating environmental and social factors into the investment decisions of financial institutions can actually generate positive financial returns?
A: I am not an investor but I have worked with investors and finance providers for many years. They all tell me the same thing: there is no long-term trade-off between financial returns and ESG objectives. Some of them have even crunched the numbers and compared the long-term returns of a conventional investment portfolio with an ESG-led portfolio. There was no penalty from holding the latter. There may even be advantages. There is evidence for example, that houses with a higher energy efficiency rating constitute a better credit risk for mortgage providers. We are unsure why, but this seems to be the case.
Of course there can be short-term market fluctuations like the energy price spike following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and now with the war in Iran. It created high profits for fossil fuel companies and capital pivoted back into the sector. But this is money that exploits short-term arbitrage opportunities. Patient capital that takes a long-term view looks beyond those cyclical effects, and over the long term the structural advantages of investments that have high social standards, respect environmental constraints and endorse good governance are quite clear.
Q: In the energy sector, there is the concept of the Energy Trilemma, which suggests that the three goals of energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability are difficult to balance simultaneously. Moreover, since 2025, some regions have seen a strong resurgence in dependence on and calls for fossil fuels. Against this complex backdrop, how do you think a smooth transition to net-zero emissions should be advanced?
A: The trade-off between energy affordability, energy security and environmental sustainability is no longer as pronounced as it was when the phrase “energy trilemma” was coined. What has changed is that, led by China, the cost of clean energy have fallen so rapidly that solar and wind are now the energy technologies of choice. They are cheaper than fossil fuels in an overwhelming number of investment contexts. The same is true for energy storage, which makes predictable clean energy increasingly cheap as well. This means that energy affordability and environmental sustainability now go hand in hand. The recent rise in the cost of capital, which makes renewables more expensive to finance has not changed this. The cost of building gas fired power plants has also gone up.
This is a forward looking narrative, about investments from now on. Many of the wind and solar installation that are currently in operations still have higher costs; they were commissioned before costs came down. We still have to pay for the learning that took place during those early years, but those learning costs were a one off.
What about the link between energy security and environmental sustainability? Again, the two objectives now go hand in hand. Fossil fuel energy is subject to high market volatility in the price of oil, coal and gas. Moreover, most countries do not have indigenous resources and are dependent on imports – some from countries with aligned interests, some not – for their fuel needs. A renewable energy installation, once built, does not depend on international fossil fuel markets. Only on the wind and the sun.
One can ask why so many energy market commentators have not yet recognised this reality. The answer is inertia. People are slow to let long-held convictions go and fossil fuels still constitute powerful market interests. But the economics of clean energy are increasingly difficult to ignore.
Q: We understand that sustainable growth in developing countries is also one of your research areas. What do you consider to be the biggest challenges and dilemmas for developing countries in achieving sustainable development? We would also like to hear your views on China's sustainable development pathway and your recommendations for its future direction.
A: The story I tell above about cheap renewables is particularly pronounced in the Global South, much more so than in the Global North. This is because most developing countries are in the sun belt, where solar regimes are particularly strong and renewable energy therefore particularly cheap. The cost of wind has come down as well, but much less so than solar, so countries in the wind belt, such as Northern Europe, are at a disadvantage.
We have calculated that energy productivity in the Global South will more than double in a renewables scenario compared to today. By energy productivity I mean the amount of usable energy generated by Euro or Yuan of investment. The productivity gains are high because renewable energy is cheap, but also because electricity is much more efficient than fossil fuels. Less energy is wasted (e.g. as waste heat in an internal combustion engine) and more energy is usable (to move the car forward). And because energy is such a ubiquitous input, a higher energy productivity translates into higher economic productivity overall.
So there is a big economic prize for the countries of the sun belt. They will have a new comparative advantage in energy intensive products and activities. But to take advantage of it, these countries will need more than just cheap energy. They will need a skilled workforce, a favourable investment climate, a stable macroeconomy and predictable rules and regulations. That for me is the true challenge for developing countries: not the transition away from fossil fuels, but how to create favourable conditions take full advantage of the emerging opportunities.
The way China has built up economic leadership in technologies like solar PV and electric vehicles shows how to do it. The world, including Western countries, have a lot to learn from China on green industrial policy.
Q: Looking ahead, what megatrends do you see impacting climate change and sustainable development? And given the Oxford Smith School's expertise at the intersection of business and the environment, how should enterprises craft their strategies to adapt to these evolving trends?
A: The economic opportunities I outline above are also business opportunities. They need to be seized by individual entrepreneurs, investors and firms. This is risky. Past structural transformations have shown that just because a new technology is the future, does not mean each investment is automatically profitable. Just think back to how much money was lost during railway mania in the middle of the 19th century or the dot com boom at the end of the 20th century.
So companies need clear strategies, a strong vision, leadership and skills. Much of the economic transformation will be driven by new market entrants, which will shake up the market with their superior products and business models. Firms like the Chinese car manufacturers. But forward looking incumbents can also thrive, if they engage proactively with the transition.
This is where we see a role for universities. There is huge demand from business leaders, mid-career professionals and students to acquire the skills needed for the clean economy of the 21st century. Our courses on sustainable enterprise are massively over-subscribed. We teach students the scientific fundamentals, so they understand climate change and the physical risks it entails, and sustainability economics so they understand good policy interventions and structural change. We teach them sustainable finance, system transformation, law, leadership and business organisation. And when they graduate we hope that they enter the global economy with the ambition and skills to make it sustainable.
新浪财经ESG评级中心简介
新浪财经ESG评级中心是业内首个中文ESG专业资讯和评级聚合平台，致力于宣传和推广可持续发展，责任投资，与ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）价值理念，传播ESG的企业实践行动和榜样力量，推动中国ESG事业的发展，促进中国ESG评估标准的建立和企业评级的提升。
依托ESG评级中心，新浪财经发布多只ESG创新指数，为关注企业ESG表现的投资者提供更多选择。同时，新浪财经成立中国ESG领导者组织论坛，携手中国ESG领导企业和合作伙伴，通过环境、社会和公司治理理念，推动建立适合中国时代特征的ESG评价标准体系，促进中国资产管理行业ESG投资发展。
责任编辑：李欣然