Australian dollar gains as rates move ahead of the pack

Reuters
Mar 18
Australian dollar gains as rates move ahead of the pack

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY, March 18 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar was in demand on Wednesday, with the country among the very few developed nations to be raising interest rates and investors wagering on further tightening ahead as energy costs inflate globally.

Markets imply a 50-50 chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike again at its next meeting in May, and rates of 4.35% are fully priced by August. 0#AUDIRPR

"Our call of a rate hike in May is another line ball decision," said Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA.

"The May RBA meeting is seven long weeks away and as we have seen in the past two weeks, the global economic climate can shift dramatically," she added. "We expect the war to be months long and energy prices to rise from here, but so too could growth concerns."

Central banks in the U.S., UK, Europe, Japan, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden this week hold their first full meetings since the start of the Middle East war, and all are expected to keep rates steady.

Widening rate differentials saw the Aussie edge up to $0.7112 AUD=D3, having gained 0.5% overnight to as far as $0.7118. Resistance lies at the recent 45-month top of $0.7187, with support at $0.7050 and $0.6980.

The kiwi dollar lagged well behind at $0.5856 NZD=D3, but did at least hold above the recent low of $0.5775. It was hobbled by selling against the Aussie, which climbed to a fresh 13-year peak of NZ$1.2148 AUDNZD=R.

"We still retain our bias for AUD as an outperformer in the G10 space as it benefits from a positive terms of trade shock," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior APAC rates strategist at TD Securities.

Australia is a net exporter of energy and is set to benefit from higher prices for liquefied natural gas and coal.

"Increased currency hedging from Australian pension funds may also anchor the AUD amidst this volatile geopolitical environment," he added.

The A$4 trillion super industry is heavily invested in U.S. stocks and bonds and is under pressure to hedge more of that exposure by selling U.S. dollars forward.

The next domestic test for the Aussie will be jobs data on Thursday, where analysts forecast a 20,000 gain in employment for February, with unemployment staying at a relatively low 4.1%.

There is speculation the jobless rate could dip to 4.0% and add to the case for further hikes.

(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

((Wayne.Cole@thomsonreuters.com; 612 9171 7144; Reuters Messaging: wayne.cole.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10