U.S. stocks have been holding up remarkably well since the U.S. and Israel first attacked Iran in late February, even though there's no end in sight to the conflict.

Stocks around the world have sold off, and the U.S. hasn't been an exception. Yet the degree of selling has been less severe in the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Asian markets, particularly South Korea, have been hit pretty hard. FactSet data showed the Kospi Composite Index KR:180721, the South Korean benchmark, has fallen 11.1% since the beginning of March, while still up more than 30% in 2026.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 SPX was down just 2.6% in March as of Monday's close, according to FactSet data. It finished trade at 6,699.38, putting its yearly loss at only 2.1%.

Despite fears of a 1970s-style oil shock, one reason why U.S. stocks have been relatively resilient since the start of the conflict is that Wall Street analysts have continued to raise their earnings forecasts, according to Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research.

"The apparent resilience in the S&P 500 is attributable to the increasing bullishness of industry analysts' consensus estimates for earnings per share in 2026 and 2027," Yardeni said in a recent report shared with MarketWatch. The below chart lays out consensus forecasts.

As Yardeni pointed out, S&P 500 companies' aggregate forward earnings rose to a record high of $328.80 per share last week. At Friday's close, that implied a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2, which is down from 22 in late January.

So far, the conflict in the Middle East appears to have had no adverse impact on analysts' profitability estimates for 2026. A similar dynamic has played out with earnings forecasts for mid-cap and small-cap companies, Yardeni said.

That being said, just because analysts haven't factored in a more negative outlook into their forecasts, it doesn't mean they won't. Still, Yardeni expects the U.S. market to continue outperforming until the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

U.S. stocks climbed on Monday, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Nasdaq Composite COMP finishing higher.

Given how disruptive the 1970s oil shock was for the U.S. economy and markets, recent moves in oil and equities prices have looked relatively tame. It may help that the U.S. economy is now a net oil exporter. But the recent climb in Treasury yields still signals doubts about the likelihood of more Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Typically, rate cuts support higher stock prices, but if they no longer are expected to materialize, it should weigh on equity valuations.

"To me, the biggest story is the lack of concern here," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, in an interview with MarketWatch last week.

U.S. stocks climbed Monday as U.S. crude-oil prices (CL.1) eased off their highs, but Brent crude futures (BRN00) continued to trade above $100 a barrel.

Since the conflict with Iran began on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 has barely registered a notable pullback, despite signs of heightened unease in the market. The Cboe Volatility Index VIX finished last week above 27, and dipped below 24 on Monday. The index typically rises when stocks slide and investors worry about more market tumult.