经济增长担忧升温 交易员在美联储决议前削减美债空头头寸

金融界
8 hours ago

来源:环球市场播报

债券交易员正在削减部分激进的押注,这些押注此前在很大程度上推动市场排除对美联储今年降息的预期。

随着规模达31万亿美元的债券市场夹在由中东战争引发的增长风险与通胀风险之间,期货交易员在周三美联储政策会议前正在解除近期大量做空美债的押注。

尽管本周预计不会调整利率,但政策制定者将公布未来数月的利率路径预测。交易员还将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会,以探寻央行如何在能源价格上涨与劳动力市场放缓迹象之间进行权衡。

此前,在油价突破每桶100美元后通胀担忧加剧,促使债券交易员将对美联储下一次降息的预期推迟至明年,短端美债抛售加剧。本周,市场又重新计入到2026年底至少降息25个基点的可能性。

“利率市场经历了快速而剧烈的重新定价,”TCW综合投资组合经理Ruben Hovhannisyan在接受采访时表示。尽管持久战争可能改变通胀前景,“我们的基准情境是冲突可能在数周而非数月内解决。CPI可能会出现上冲,但向核心通胀的传导总体有限”,他表示,称疲弱的劳动力市场可能削弱影响。

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