骏利亨德森:美联储保持审慎避免立场转鹰 为市场带来喘息空间

智通财经
Mar 19

智通财经APP获悉,骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk称,美联储维持利率不变,符合市场预期,但整体语调较为审慎,而非偏向鹰派。整体而言,美联储重申耐心立场,承认地缘政治带来的不确定性,同时在通胀预测上调的情况下仍避免转向更鹰派立场,这对于在近期波动中已感受压力的市场而言,可算是一种喘息空间。

Daniel Siluk提到,最新的经济预测摘要(SEP)显示,通胀预测略为上调,2026年的个人消费支出(PCE)及核心PCE均被上调至2.7%。同期经济增长预测略为上升,而失业率则变化不大。值得注意的是,2026年的利率中位点维持在3.375%,显示即使通胀预期上升,委员会亦未有倾向加息。

Daniel Siluk表示,声明中明确指出就业增长仍然偏低、通胀“略为偏高”,而中东局势带来的不确定性使前景更为复杂,反映决策者更清晰地意识到两方面的风险。Stephen Miran(米兰)再次表达异议,并支持降息25个基点。市场原先预期可能会有更多委员持不同意见,但最终只有Miran一人异议,反映委员会在维持政策稳定方面态度倾向一致。

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