小摩：下调友邦保险(01299)目标价至112港元重申“增持”评级

智通财经

11 hours ago

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，友邦保险(01299)去年业绩稳固，加上回购规模超出预期，以及管理层对增长质素的信心，该行微调多项财务预测，包括上调2026至2028年现有寿险保单的现金生成预测至77亿至96亿美元，反映资本效率前景改善，并轻微上调核心盈利及合约服务利润(CSM)余额预测，以反映持续的盈利增长趋势。小摩将友邦保险目标价由115港元下调至112港元，同时将17亿美元的大规模回购计划纳入预测，重申“增持”评级。

报告指，友邦新业务经济效益改善，新业务价值对新业务投资比率由2023/2024年的3倍及3.1倍，提升至去年的3.8倍，反映未来现金生成能力。该行预测2026及2027年新业务价值分别为62亿及74亿美元，高于市场预期的63亿及72亿美元，随着产品组合持续改善，预期CSM余额将由今年底的720亿美元增至2028年底的920亿美元，支持资产负债表强劲复合效应。

虽然该行下调对友邦2026及2027年新业务价值预测，以反映宏观环境波动、其他市场(除印度外)趋势相对疲软，以及中国销售量影响，但仍预期未来三年新业务价值可实现双位数增长。集团宣布今年回购预算达17亿美元，小摩估计未来12个月总股东回报率可达约4%，提供下行保护，但预期2026年后不会有额外回购。

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