麦格理全球能源策略师Vikas Dwivedi及其团队在报告中称，在今日有关紧张局势可能缓和的消息公布后，布伦特油价的底部在每桶85至90美元；在霍尔木兹海峡恢复通行之前，油价可能回升至110美元附近。

　　若霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭，布伦特油价到4月底仍可能升至每桶150美元，而成品油价格预计将较战前水平高出200%。

　　预计经由该海峡运输的石油总量为每日150万桶，远低于每日1500万桶的正常水平，意味着存在每日1350万桶的供应缺口。

　　报告指出，应对供应损失的六项措施包括：

　　释放战略石油储备；

　　来自海上及陆上大型项目的全球装运量增加，今年日增50万桶；

　　OPEC释放储存在该区域外的石油；

　　通过管道改道运输，例如沙特东西管道；

　　因原油供应不足而削减炼厂开工，模型测算为每日350万桶；

　　从浮式储存中释放最多7500万桶原油。

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责任编辑：王永生

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