智通财经APP获悉，晨星发布研报称，在评估能源价格和盈利预测后，受人民币升值影响，将中国石油化工股份(00386)H股(无护城河)的公允价值预测上调3.6%，从5.5港元升至5.7港元。A股的估值维持不变，仍为5元人民币。
报告中称，受油价下跌、下游需求疲软及减值亏损影响，中石化2025年净利润下降34%至325亿元人民币(下同)。每股0.2元的股息意味着派息比率约为75%。中石化2026年的业绩指引显示，油气产量将增长0.2%，炼油厂吞吐量将持平，国内成品油销量将下降4.3%，乙烯产量增长3.4%，这反映油田老化和电动车转型的影响。
受中东冲突的影响，布伦特原油价格已突破每桶100美元，该行预计中石化第一季的业绩将受益于上游盈利的改善和库存增长。然而，如果供应中断持续，该行认为炼油利润率将面临下行风险。中石化也面临运费上涨、成品油价格管控及潜在的出口限制等压力，尽管管理层指出，目前的原油和成品油库存足以支持正常运行。
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