金吾财讯 | 快递物流板块普遍扬升，中通快递(02057)涨1.74%，京东物流(02618)涨1.19%，中国外运(00598)涨1.05%，顺丰控股(06936)涨0.3%。
长江证券研报指，“官方年货节”跨度拉长驱动，2026年一季度包裹量预计实现中个位数增长。电商税落地带动AOV（客单价）改善；“反内卷”延续助力单价同比修复，盈利随市场份额向龙头集中而显著改善。顺丰坚持产品结构优化，高价值业务占比提升。虽量增放缓，但单价降幅收窄，配合结构性降本，收入更趋健康，盈利有望稳健增长。华泰证券研报指出，往后展望，在社保推进预期、合规经营监管要求下，“产粮区”淡季有望挺价甚至涨价，电商快递板块盈利或超预期，首选量、价均相对受益、长期胜率高的中通快递、圆通速递；持续推荐估值处在底部，左侧布局件量结构调优的综合物流龙头顺丰控股。
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