ChainCatcher 消息，据 Wintermute 发布的市场周报，特朗普宣布暂停对伊朗能源基础设施打击五天，地缘政治风险溢价回落，BTC 从68,000 美元低位反弹重回 70,000 美元上方，布伦特原油大幅下跌。美联储本次会议维持利率 3.50%-3.75%不变，点阵图显示 19 位官员中有 14 位预计 2026 年零次或仅一次降息，市场已完全排除秋季前降息预期。
本周 BTC 整体下跌约 3.4%，FOMC 会议单日触发 7.08 亿美元 ETF 资金流出，为近两个月最大单日流出；黄金则录得 1983 年以来最差单周表现，跌幅超 10%。ETH 表现相对突出，ETF 单周净流入 1.608 亿美元，创历史纪录。
Wintermute 指出，若霍尔木兹海峡运输正常化、外交谈判持续推进，BTC 有望挑战 74,000至 76,000 美元阻力区间，极端乐观情景下可向 80,000 美元进发；若谈判破裂、运输限制持续，BTC 或回测 60,000 美元中段支撑。
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