What is the long-term plan for the Strait of Hormuz?

cityam

Mar 23

The disruption of the critical Strait of Hormuz by Iran has created a major global energy crisis that requires a high-risk military solution – but the West currently lacks both the determination and a...

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Michael Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, has called this “what could be an unprecedented and escalating global energy crisis”, with the price of oil soaring since President Trump authorised Operation Epic Fury on 28 February.Get weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from CityAM’s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.Trump has indicated that he will reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, initially appealing to allies for assistance, then, when little was forthcoming, angrily denying that America needed anyone’s help. This adolescent moodiness is typical of the President, but allies of the United States cannot afford to sit back and shrug. However we got here, we face the possibility of a serious economic crisis prompted by an energy shortage far worse than the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.No-one","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0788109394.HKD":"BGF WORLD ENERGY \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","IE00B29SXK94.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2449327464.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输","IE00B29SXL02.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) INC","LNG":"Cheniere Energy","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"霍尔木兹海峡的长期计划是什么？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LNG":1},"content_text":"The disruption of the critical Strait of Hormuz by Iran has created a major global energy crisis that requires a high-risk military solution – but the West currently lacks both the determination and a coherent long-term plan. says Eliot WilsonToday is a red-letter day for Middle East navigational hazard enthusiasts: five years ago, at 7.40 am, the 224,000-ton container ship Even Given was caught in a sandstorm travelling north in the Suez Canal. She was just over six miles into the waterway and was blown aground diagonally across the entire canal, blocking it entirely; it took six days to free the Ever Given, during which time a queue of nearly 370 ships built, the value of their goods estimated at $9.6bn per day.The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, is, like the Suez Canal, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints. There are reckoned to be five such chokepoints dominating commercial shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal: the others are the Bab-el-Mandeb, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden; the Panama Canal; and the Strait of Malacca between Sumatra and the Malay Peninsula, connecting the Andaman Sea and the South China Sea.Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March, the third day of the US and Israeli military operation. It has since refined this to a ban only on shipping from the United States, Israel and their Western allies, and Chinese, Turkish and Indian vessels have safely navigated the waterway; but others from Malta, Thailand, Liberia and elsewhere have been attacked. Iran’s word has not been enough for the maritime insurance industry and premiums have soared or coverage simply been refused, causing traffic to dwindle more or less to nothing.\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz usually carries around 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne trade in oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Michael Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, has called this “what could be an unprecedented and escalating global energy crisis”, with the price of oil soaring since President Trump authorised Operation Epic Fury on 28 February.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFree Thinking - City AM Opinion Newsletter\nGet weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from City AM’s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nReopen the Strait by force?Trump has indicated that he will reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, initially appealing to allies for assistance, then, when little was forthcoming, angrily denying that America needed anyone’s help. This adolescent moodiness is typical of the President, but allies of the United States cannot afford to sit back and shrug. However we got here, we face the possibility of a serious economic crisis prompted by an energy shortage far worse than the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.No-one in Washington nor the chancelleries of Europe should be surprised. Iran has never fully closed the Strait of Hormuz for any sustained period before, though Saddam Hussein’s attack on Iranian tankers at Kharg Island in 1984 was intended to provoke such a move and sparked the destructive four-year Tanker War. But the ability to disrupt the strait, 104 miles long but only 24 miles across at its narrowest, has always been the dagger Iran holds at the throat of the oil-hungry West.Our desperate hope must be that Washington has already undertaken a great deal of planning, examining options for exactly this scenario. It has wargamed conflict over the Strait of Hormuz extensively in the past and trained alongside British forces. But one major exercise, Millennium Challenge 2002, was halted and amended when the opposing “Red” forces inflicted huge losses on the “Blue” American side.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}