金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，三一国际(00631)周末公布，预计2025年税后利润将同比增长50%-73%至16-18.5亿元人民币，主要得益于商誉和房地产资产减值的大幅减少。然而，按经常性利润计算（不计减值损失），该机构预计2025年利润将同比下降10%至增长4%至16.7-19.2亿元人民币。这一利润区间比该机构的预期低16-27%，比彭博的普遍预期低19-30%。据该机构了解，盈利预期低于预期主要是由于港口设备相关的一次性支出，以及光伏业务相关的运营费用高于预期。尽管2025年盈利疲弱，但该机构预计三一国际在2026年开局良好，主要得益于矿卡订单强劲以及港口设备业务能见度高。该机构预计三一国际的油气设备业务也将受益于当前高企的油气价格。该机构将在公布年度业绩后（3月31日）修订盈利预测。该机构维持“买入”评级，目标价20.6港元，基于2026年预测市盈率20倍（相当于2017年以来的峰值水平，旨在反映大宗商品价格上涨周期带来的盈利可见性提升）。
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