智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，中国航空公司正进入逾十年来最强劲的供需格局，飞机交付短缺限制了2026至2027年运力增长，维持于约3%至4%，行业客座率在去年第四季创下历史新高。然而，伊朗与美国的战争已成为主导的短期风险，布伦特原油已急升约50%至每桶115美元，而中国航空公司完全未有对冲，燃油约占营运成本三分之一。该行基本情境预测2026至2027年油价为每桶80美元，将使三大内地航空公司在2026年录得亏损或接近盈亏平衡。
该行指，行业股价已因地缘政治紧张局势调整约30%，在油价前景明朗前，该行维持审慎看法; 予中国国航(00753)评级由“减持”升至“中性”，目标价由4.5港元上调至4.8港元。中国东方航空股份(00670)评级由“中性”降至“减持”，东航H股目标价由3港元下调至2.7港元;中国东航(600115.SH)评级由“增持”降至“减持”，A股目标价由5元人民币下调至3.3元人民币。中国南方航空股份(01055)“减持”评级，H股目标价由2.9港元下调至2.8港元;南方航空(600029.SH)A股目标价由4.8元人民币下调至4元人民币。
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