Stocks fell for the fourth straight week last week, with the S&P 500 declining 1.9% to its lowest closing level since September. The war in Iran escalated as Israel struck energy assets and the U.S. prepared to deploy more troops to the Middle East.
For financial markets, the real action last week was in bonds, where global yields surged as traders tried to price in the war's inflationary effects. Ten-year yields on German and United Kingdom sovereign bonds reached their highest levels in more than a decade. On this side of the pond, the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 10 basis points on the week to 4.38%, the highest level since July.
Traders are now expecting the Federal Open Market Committee's next move to be a rate hike instead of a cut. There is currently about a one-in-three chance of a hike by the end of October according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. It was only a month ago that the market was expecting more than two quarter-point cuts to the federal-funds rate this year.
Headlines about the Iran war will continue to dominate trading this week as there is little economic or earnings news for Wall Street to digest.
On Tuesday, ADP will release its weekly update to its National Employment Report, and S&P Global will release both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes.
GameStop will report earnings on Tuesday, Jefferies Financial Group on Wednesday, and Carnival on Friday.
Monday 3/23
The Census Bureau reports construction spending data for January. Consensus estimate is for a 0.1% month-over-month increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.2 trillion, following a 0.3% rise in December.
Tuesday 3/24
GameStop and KB Home release earnings.
ADP releases its National Employment report for the four weeks ending March 7. In February, private employers added an average of 9,000 jobs per week according to ADP's NER Pulse.
S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and Services Purchasing Managers' Index for March. Consensus estimate for the Manufacturing PMI is a 51 reading, while the Services PMI is expected to come in at 51.5. This compares with readings of 51.6 and 51.7, respectively, in February.
Wednesday 3/25
Chewy, Cintas, JBS, Jefferies Financial Group, Paychex, and PDD Holdings report quarterly results.
Thursday 3/26
The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21. Jobless claims have been stable recently, averaging 210,750 a week over the past month, reinforcing a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market.
Friday 3/27
Carnival releases its first-quarter fiscal-2026 results.