智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，将阿里巴巴-W(09988)2026财年营收/调整后每股盈利预测分别下调1%、10%，以反映12月季度业绩。并将2027财年营收/调整后每股盈盈利预测分别下调3%、5%；故将阿里(BABA.US)美股目标价由215美元下调至205美元，港股目标价则由210港元下调至200港元。重申对阿里巴巴“增持”评级。
阿里截至去年12月底止季度业绩，凸显了一个具体且可验证的投资主张，市场目前对阿里估值仅反映其国内电商业务的价值。该行预测，阿里2027财年国内电商利润约1,960亿元人民币，以约10倍市盈率计算，意味着阿里云及即时零售平台在估值中均被完全忽略，未体现任何价值。
该行指出，阿里云收入增长已从六个季度前的7%低谷，回升至最近一季的36%，其中AI产品收入更连续十个季度录得三位数增长。管理层目标未来五年云业务收入达1,000亿美元，即年均复合增长率约47%，该行认为从近期季度数据来看，实现该目标的轨迹尚未被数据否定。若目标达成且获得合理估值，仅云业务一项价值可达4,000亿美元，较阿里目前约2,980亿美元市值更高。
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