ChainCatcher 消息，SkyBridge 创始人 Anthony Scaramucci 表示，当前比特币熊市可用四年周期理论和长期持有者在 10 万美元心理价位抛售来解释。他指出，机构投资者和比特币 ETF 的资金流入虽已使四年周期变得“温和”，但并未完全消除这一传统周期，市场参与者的共同信念会形成自我实现的预言。
他预测 2026 年大部分时间比特币将呈现震荡走势，第四季度才会开始在新一轮牛市周期中再次上涨。Scaramucci 称，包括他在内的市场参与者曾普遍预期在特朗普政府亲加密议程和监管转暖推动下，比特币 2025 年将涨至 15 万美元，但 10 月的市场崩盘彻底打破了这一共识。
他以 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盘后比特币在 2023 年初的走势为例，说明市场往往与主流情绪反向运行，牛市通常始于“极度冷漠和缺乏兴趣”的时期，当前熊市属于与以往回调一致的“普通”调整。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.