Wall Street folds after gold loses 10% in a week, Main Street turns negative as Iran war escalation looms

Kitco

Mar 20

(Kitco News) – Gold prices clung for dear life to the $5,000 per ounce support level as long as they could this week, but a series of pessimistic central bank statements and a discouraging Iran war ...

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Now that that is behind us, and since nothing in the past month or so has fundamentally changed with regards to gold and silver, it is time to start climbing back up from this overdone correction.”“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Yes, I know the gold market collapsed this week. But to say the trend has turned down is to apply short-term thinking to a lo","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"kitco.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","BK4588":"碎股","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","BK4207":"综合性银行","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"金价一周内下跌10%，华尔街下跌，伊朗战争升级迫在眉睫，主街转为负值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GDXJ":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"AAAU":1.5,"XME":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"DZZ":1.5},"content_text":"(Kitco News) – Gold prices clung for dear life to the $5,000 per ounce support level as long as they could this week, but a series of pessimistic central bank statements and a discouraging Iran war outlook proved too much for the yellow metal, and when the dust settled, gold had given back over 10% of its value.Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $5,023.53 per ounce, and for nearly three full days, gold traders were treated to smooth sailing through calm seas. Through Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday – when it set the weekly high just above $5,040 – and right through the Asian and most of the European session on Wednesday, gold bounced around between $5,040 and $4,975, with much of that time spent trading in a $30 range. Traders needed to be on their toes at 6:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, however, when spot gold broke below critical support at $4,970 saw the yellow metal collapse $120 in a little over two hours, only finding support once prices hit $4860 per ounce. Markets then digested the morning’s hotter-than-expected PPI print as they waited for the main event: the Federal Reserve rate decision and updated economic projections at 2:00 p.m.The interest rate hold itself was not a surprise, and gold did little with it, but Fed chair Powell's press conference drove gold down to the edge of $4,800 per ounce by the equity market close. Then, a second capitulation during the Asian session saw gold deliver its most precipitous decline since the early February collapse, with the yellow metal falling from $4,833 at 2:00 a.m. Thursday morning, right down to $4,538, half an hour before the North American equity open. Gold did see a strong bounce back up to $4,630 half an hour later, and after establishing near-term support around $4,575, the yellow metal spent Thursday on its first and only uptrend of the week, topping out at $4,733 per ounce by 11:15 p.m. Eastern. But after a second run to $4,730 failed, gold gave up the other half of its weekly loss, dropping from $4,722 at 4:15 a.m. all the way down below $4,500 by 3:00 p.m., setting the weekly low of $4,477.54 in the process, and staggering into the weekly (weakly?) close just below the $4,500 per ounce level. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey saw Wall Street experts throw in the towel on gold’s near-term prospects, while Main Street investors switched to a bearish bias after another poor weekly performance.“Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “The markets dipped this week as expected due to the FOMC meeting, rate decision, and subsequent remarks from Chairman Powell. Now that that is behind us, and since nothing in the past month or so has fundamentally changed with regards to gold and silver, it is time to start climbing back up from this overdone correction.”“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “Yes, I know the gold market collapsed this week. But to say the trend has turned down is to apply short-term thinking to a long-term problem. Inflation is going to increase, of that there is no doubt. Short-term, this has driven some of the investment money to energies as a hedge against the tsunami-sized ripple effects of the US president’s war in Iran. But it is that same situation, creating more geopolitical uncertainty, that will bring buyers back to gold as a safe-haven market. Eventually.”“Next week? I have no idea,” Newsom added. “But I’d rather say ‘Up’ than ‘Down’ at this time.”Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, told Kitco News he sees gold prices likely heading lower – but not for very long.“Sentiment has changed, and the market is focused on the negatives, including central banks around the world – including the Federal Reserve – being more reluctant to cut interest rates in the face of higher oil prices,” he said. “This is only temporary, in my view.”Day said he believes the U.S. economy is sliding towards recession, and the Fed will be forced to loosen policy again. “It may be another round of QE rather than significantly lower interest rates,” he said, but quantitative easing “would have an equally positive impact on gold.”“And the buyers of gold the last few years – and the reasons they were buying – have not gone away,” Day emphasized. “So we may see gold weaker in the near term, but the fundamental monetary and fiscal problems behind gold’s bull market will re-emerge once the war ends or settles down.”Day said that there's a prevailing notion that gold always does well in geopolitical crises, but that’s not necessarily the case.“It's a safe-haven asset, but it typically moves up ahead of these events,” he said. “Rarely does something just come completely out of the blue. 9/11 was out of the blue, but the Iran-Iraq war wasn't out of the blue. The Iraq invasion wasn't out of the blue. The Ukraine invasion wasn't out of the blue, and [the current Iran conflict] was well-telegraphed. We had gold move up $500 in the week ahead of the bombing in anticipation, and that's a normal pattern. The same thing happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it moved up ahead of it. So it's ‘buy the rumor, sell the news.’”Day said while the ‘buy the rumor’ component is obvious. “The question is, why does gold sell off after the event? I think there are a couple of reasons for that.”One reason is that people sell simply to take the profit of the advance move.“If I bought at $4,800 and a week later it's $5,500, I say, ‘Wow, nice profit, let's take it,’” he said. “But I think more importantly, when you have a geopolitical event – and this was clear with Iran – the dollar moves up, and all other things being equal, gold moves down.”Another thing that often happens in these situations, and happened here as well, is interest rates go up. “So now you've got the dollar moving up and interest rates moving up, and so gold is less attractive comparatively,” he noted.Yet another factor working against gold is the ensuing liquidity crunch. “It may not be global, it may be localized, but there's always some kind of rush for liquidity somewhere,” Day said. “We know that once Iran started bombing the neighboring Arab countries, that, ironically, is when gold really fell. You had the situation where people in Dubai were selling their gold at a discount. If they're bombing the oil refinery, and they're bombing the Fairmont Hotel by mistake, maybe they'll bomb your gold depository by mistake, and your gold will be gone.”“If I own gold in Dubai, I want it out of there.”But despite all these factors working against gold in the near term, Day believes the situation can turn around relatively quickly once regular traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz.“Even in the immediate sense, there's about 8 million barrels of oil waiting to be shipped, so that will have some kind of easing effect,” he said. “And even if the oil price doesn't fall sharply immediately, if the war ends, the sentiment will turn, and that's what's important.”“The war is really the critical thing now,” he added. “It'll affect the oil, and it'll also ease the liquidity crunch issue. Once at some point when the war ends or settles down – once the conflict in a geopolitical sense has settled down – then I think the focus will shift to the monetary issues and the fiscal issues rather than the geopolitical issues. And those are overwhelmingly bullish for gold.”Day said the real question is, how long and how deep will gold’s price correction be before that happens?“I don't think there's necessarily going to be a switch that's turned on one day, but if we look out six months or 12 months, I think the demand for gold will return, the traditional buyers will return, and gold will move back up again,” he said. “Obviously, the timeline to be pushed back a bit. A week ago, you could be reasonably optimistic it had bottomed and we’d turn around soon; this could take us back to $4,000. And if we go back to $4,000 in gold over the next three, four weeks, then it's going to take that much longer when sentiment shifts to climb back up to $5,000. But if you look out six months or a year, I have very little doubt that the buyers will come back, and gold will resume its upward move.”This week, 18 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street as negative as they’ve been this year after gold broke through multiple support levels. Only three experts, or 17%, expected to see gold prices move higher during the week ahead, while the overwhelming majority of 12, fully 67%, predicted a price decline. The remaining three analysts – 17% of the total – saw the risks evenly balanced in the near term.Meanwhile, 309 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investor sentiment turning definitively bearish for the first time in months after the yellow metal’s sustained slide. 147 retail traders, or 47%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while 104, or 34%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 58 investors, representing 19% of the total, expected prices to consolidate during the week ahead.After this week’s heavy slate of central bank decisions and key data, next week’s economic news calendar would fit on a Post-it note, so traders are likely to focus on Iran war developments and technical levels in the absence of other catalysts.The only noteworthy events will be the Tuesday morning release of Flash S&P PMI data for March, and the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday.“Gold has lost its luster amid a jump in interest rates, a sell-off in equities and talk of Middle East sales,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The roughly 6.7% loss this week in the spot market would be the largest in six years.  The low for the year was seen in early February near $4402. A break would weaken the tone and could signal losses toward $4100.  Still, the price action seems stretched as it appears poised to settle for the third consecutive session below the lower Bollinger Band.”Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, was struggling to understand the rationale for gold’s recent selloff, even with higher-for-longer interest rates and a stronger dollar.“The idea is that we're down this week because yields have gone up, inflation concerns, central banks getting less dovish,” he said. “That's our $400, $500 drop in gold. Okay… who was buying gold because of rate cuts? You were buying gold because of rate cuts? On what, comp yield, the extra 50 basis points you were going to get over treasuries? And then what? The idea was they were going to be dovish, and then what? Trigger inflation? We've got the inflation. We just skipped two steps ahead. It's just nonsense that gold is selling off on this.”Button said the administration’s four-to-six-week timeline for the Iran conflict is clearly not happening, with a ground offensive against Kharg Island appearing imminent and NATO countries refusing to follow Trump’s lead.“What we're seeing, again, is a breakdown in the transatlantic partnership, which is your best reason to buy gold,” he said. “The fundamental thing driving gold is the breakdown of the global order. And this fracture between Trump and NATO is a fresh crack. When the dust settles, it is bullish for gold.”Button said he understands why people are sitting on the sidelines right now, but the macro picture remains bullish gold for the foreseeable future. “What else do you really want to own right now?” he said. “I get that it's going down, seasonals are not so great now, but it all looks pretty [favorable for gold] to me.”“I think there's this tail risk now that central banks will need to hike rates,” he said. “I think that's gone from, before this war, like 0.1% to between 10% and 20%. It could take at least another month, and you can't un-sanction Russian and Iranian oil twice, and you can't release the strategic reserves twice. You also have Iran that's realized that it has leverage in attacking these facilities.”“If you're trading gold, you're just watching $4,400, $4,500 here,” he said. “It looks like we'll probably carve this out, could be for the rest of the year, $4,500 to $5,500.Button said the speculative positions in ETFs and futures are what’s draining out of the market, because many of them bought high.“There's a lot of paper dollars in gold,” he said. “Everyone's levered long, and the head fake higher before the war probably pulled some people in above $5,000, $5,100 – it got up to $5,400 the day before the war. If you bought at $5,100, $5,200, you were still hanging on until Tuesday. Then yesterday, they were buying ahead of $4,500, got big support at $4,400… I think those buyers are going to stick around. I just think people who got caught on the wrong side of that pop above $5,100 are not so eager to step in and buy gold here on a day when the Fed's talking about hiking.”“I think the gold buyers are going to be there, but not right here,” Button added. “Do you want to be buying gold and then seeing the S&P 500 down 3%, 4%? If you want to lever up on gold, you're looking for a little more stability. I think gold will rally when we can see the light at the end of the tunnel in this conflict.”Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, told Kitco News that he sees gold prices falling further next week.“Gold is set to record its worst weekly performance in over 40 years, having fallen by nearly 9%,” he noted. “This marks the third consecutive week of price declines, but the sell-off has accelerated since Wednesday. The fundamental factors are the synchronised tightening of rhetoric by the major central banks. In response to the oil shock, they are talking about inflationary risks, hinting at a readiness to raise rates. At the same time, they are so far ignoring the fact that difficulties in the energy market are negative for the economy and will require rate cuts in the medium term. Whilst the markets are playing out the first part of this scenario, gold prices are falling.”Kuptsikevich pointed to the breach of the 50-day moving average as a technical factor that accelerated the yellow metal’s decline. “Such sharp drops reinforce our confidence that the recent upward trend is reversing,” he said. “Gold may even fall without significant pullbacks as far as $4,000, where the 200-day moving average lies and where the previous consolidation zone was. And even at these levels, it will not be too cheap to buy for the next 2–3 years.”Analysts at CPM Group issued a Buy recommendation on Thursday, with an Initial Target Price of $5,000 before March 31 and a Stop Loss at $4,400.“Gold prices have fallen to a low of $4,505.00 this morning from $5,003.59 on Monday morning, 16 March, at the time of CPM’s most recent Trade Recommendation,” they noted. “That Gold Trade Recommendation was a Sell signal with a target of $4,850, around $250 lower than the price Monday morning.”“There remains downside potential, but the probability of a rebound in the ultra-short term seems greater than the downside risk at this time,” the analysts said. “Prices easily could fall to $4,300, $4,200, or even $4,000, but the ponderance of negative political and economic conditions suggest that a rebound toward $5,000 seems more probable over the next two weeks.”“The growing global realization that the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is not likely to be resolved in a matter of weeks or months, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and bombing of oil and gas facilities around the Persian Gulf, and the refusal of nations around the world to join the U.S. government in its military actions all suggest increased investor demand for gold in the near term, and in the long term… and consequently higher prices.”Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects gold prices to slide lower once again next week.“In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength,” he said. “We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. In a Medium time frame: The break above 31482 brought in $2,478.2 of strength. The trade above 32214 brought in $2,405.4 of strength. The trade above 32236 brought in $2,403.2 of strength. The trade above 32392 projected this up $115 (+)—we attained $2,387.6. The trade above 33411 brought in $2,285.7 of strength. The trade above 33850 brought in $2,241.8 of strength. The trade above 34186 brought in $2,208.2 of strength. The break above 35640 brought in $2,062.8 of strength. The trade above 36658 brought in $1,961.0 of strength. The trade above 37143 brought in $1,912.5 of strength. The break above 37725 brought in $1,854.3 of strength. The trade above 38828 brought in $1,744.0 of strength. These are ON HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 (+15 tics per/hour) projects this down $220 minimum, $740 (+) maximum—we attained $750.4,” Morr continued. “The trade back below 52036 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $698.6 of pressure. The trade back below 51606 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $655.6 of pressure. The trade below 48530 (+4 tics per/hour) has brought in $348.0 of pressure. The break back below 46415 (+3 tics per/hour) now warns of renewed pressure. A maintained gap higher Monday will leave a minor bullish reversal below.”And Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out that gold was seeing its worst week in six years due to war in the Middle East boosting energy and reducing expectations for central bank interest rate cuts, and he expects more declines in the near term.“The precious metal has dropped every week since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last month,” he noted. “Despite the recent pullback, gold remains about 8% higher this year, with some analysts suggesting a temporary drop in prices may boost central bank buying once more.”“Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00,” Wyckoff said. “Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the February low of $4,423.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,738.20 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at $4,600.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,505.00.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,497.48 per ounce for a loss of 10.32% on the week and 3.29% on the day.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}