高盛:史上最大规模的石油危机促使各方进行战略重新思考

格隆汇
Yesterday

3月23日,高盛石油团队表示,此次规模空前的石油供应冲击很可能会促使人们重新审视能源风险问题。“我们预计,在霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后,政策制定者将重新建立更高的战略储备水平,同时市场也会在长期价格中加入安全溢价。”

高盛称,此次冲击尚未完全波及西方地区,仍主要是一场局部危机,即导致石油运输量大幅下降,亚洲市场供应紧张(亚洲通常占霍尔木兹进口量的95%)。不过,美国和欧洲经合组织国家的商业原油库存正在上升。高盛目前预计,3月至4月期间布伦特原油均价将为110美元,较2025年的平均价格高出62%。它预测,3月WTI原油均价为98美元,4月为105美元,因为市场会将美国的出口价格纳入考量,从而拉大美、布两油之间的价差。

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