智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，料2026全年中国燃料煤价格为每吨750至800元人民币(下同)。价格上行机会集中于5至6月夏季补库窗口期，届时采购可能受国际能源价格高企及印尼供应波动影响。在供应紧张情境下，价格可能短暂试探每吨900元，但考虑到中国具快速响应的政策协调供应能力，持续飙升的可能性不大。
该行料2026至28年QHD5500煤价分别为每吨750元、720元及670元，以反映全球能源市场趋紧和印尼削减配额带来的轻微影响。现予中国神华(601088.SH)A股及中国神华(01088)H股目标价48.6元人民币及48港元，评级“中性”。另外，予兖矿能源(01171)目标价11.4港元，陕西煤业(601225.SH)目标价22.8元人民币，均维持“沽售”评级，因目前股价已超前反映基本面。
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