金吾财讯 | 光大期货表示，美联储的鹰派立场已基本被市场消化，投资者将关注未来美国通胀变化，若通胀预期大幅走高，将强化点阵图的鹰派逻辑，可能引发利率预期的二次修正。但更重要的是，市场将继续聚焦在美伊冲突，霍尔木兹海峡的军事对峙逐步升级为“交火前夜”，美军是否派地面部队介入将成为新的关注点，当前高油价问题日益突出，这也会使得美联储陷入“抗通胀”与“防衰退”的两难，而美金融市场的波动固然会产生流动性担忧，从而可能再次压制金价，但若美伊冲突持续性被拉长，也会再次激发黄金避险与抗通胀双重属性。因此我们对于后市金价并不悲观，地缘风险的溢价会在后期逐步显现，策略上建议采取逢低买入持有的配置思路，特别是做空情绪快速释放后，给了投资者更好的买入时机。银铂钯当前走势跟随黄金上下波动，?操作难度加大，黄金作为贵金属“压舱石”作用显著，关注金价何时回归上升通道，静待时机而动。
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