金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中国宏桥(01378)2025年净利润为226亿元人民币（同比增长1%），比该机构预期/彭博共识低5%/7%。经调整金融工具公允价值损失后，核心净利润同比增长8%至264亿元人民币（2025年下半年同比下降18%，主要受氧化铝业务利润基数较高影响），与该机构的预期一致。中国宏桥公布派发末期股息每股1.65港元，派息率约为66%。该机构重申中国宏桥是今年全球铝供应紧张的主要受益者（中东供应中断+印度尼西亚新产能建设进展缓慢）。该机构预计，在其他因素不变的情况下，铝价每上涨1%，将推动2026年盈利增加约2.3%。维持买入评级，目标价45港元不变，基于2026年预期市盈率的11倍（相当于历史平均水平加上2个标准差，以反映供应受限驱动的上涨周期）。
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