【券商聚焦】招银国际维持小鹏汽车(09868/XPEV)“买入”评级 料下半年人形机器人量产有望成为股价上涨的催化剂

金吾财讯
Yesterday

金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指,小鹏汽车(09868/XPEV)4Q25收入同比提升38%至223亿元,创历史新高,较该机构的预测高5%,源于来自大众的技术研发服务收入和碳积分收入超预期。汽车毛利率13%,较该机构的预测低1.3个百分点,销管研费用均略超预期。但受益于高毛利的研发服务收入,4Q25综合毛利率达21.3%,创历史新高,经营亏损为历史最小,实现首季盈利。该机构预测因1Q26销量展望低于该机构预期而将再次出现净亏损,但小鹏2026年出口目标同比翻倍至9万台超该机构此前预期。考虑到1Q26销量表现偏弱,该机构将2026年销量预测下调到54万台。得益于4款全新车型(尤其是其中2款Mona SUV)和出口的贡献,该机构预计2H26销量将较1H26接近翻倍。另外,2H26人形机器人量产有望成为股价上涨的催化剂:根据该机构的供应链渠道调研,小鹏计划在2026年底前生产2,000台Iron机器人。小鹏此前亦指引2030年实现人形机器人年销量100万台的目标,这或将带来翻倍的收入,而该机构目前仅在2027年的预测中反映了少量的机器人收入。考虑到销量预测下调和研发费用预测上调,该机构将2026和2027年的non-GAAP净利润(扣除股份支付和非现金税收优惠)预测分别下调59%和37%至9亿元和23亿元。维持“买入”评级,下调目标价至24.00美元/94.0港元,基于1.7x 2026E P/S。

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10