By Jacob Sonenshine
In a year that has featured intense merger and acquisition activity, many deals are on track to close soon. Stock in many of the companies being acquired will likely rise upon closing.
The total dollar value of announced global M&A for this year's first quarter is up 34% year over year, to $996 billion, according to London Stock Exchange Group. Continued economic growth, which is pushing companies' earnings and market values higher, has been driving the size of the deals.
The Iran war is threatening to slow down the growth, but at this point the deals are under way. And after the Trump administration relaxed regulations around M&A, many pending deals will close in a matter of months.
"The change of confidence level of deal makers from the transition from the Biden administration to the Trump administration has been astounding, " says Roy Behren, Westchester Capital Management's co-chief investment officer.
Investors can buy shares of acquired companies right before closing. Usually, a stock will rise close to the deal price after the companies have publicly announced the agreement, but not all the way up to that price, leaving some room for gains when the deal is officially complete.
One pending acquisition Behren is watching is Nelson Peltz's Trian Partners' $52 per share all-cash offer for asset manager Janus Henderson. Victory Capital had come in with a roughly $57 bid, but not all of that offer was in cash. Victory withdrew that offer this week, so now Janus investors can expect with more confidence that Trian will write a check for $52 a share by mid 2026, so roughly June 30.
This would bring about a 1.11% from Janus' current $51.42 stock price. While that may not sound like a great return, it's solid for a period of just over three months.
On an annualized basis, it reflects a near 5% return. Shares in these scenarios usually see minimal volatility because the only factor that matters for what they're worth is the pending transaction, making the returns look even more appealing.
In the unlikely event the deal is delayed, Janus would pay its shareholders a $1 dividend each quarter, keeping the return profile sturdy.
Another situation to look at: AES Corp.'s $15 per share all-cash sale to a group of private buyers. AES stock currently trades at $14.08. The deal should close late this year or in early 2027.
Assuming AES makes its next three scheduled dividend payments, which would total 53 cents before closing, the total return would hit about 10.3%. If, for argument's sake, the deal closes Dec. 31, the annualized return would be almost 14%.
Other deals that should close in the next few months are Clearwater Analytics' sale to a group of private money managers, Webster Financial's sale to Banco Santander, Select Medical Holdings' agreement to sell to a consortium of investors, Talkspace's sale to Universal Health Service, Day One Biopharmaceuticals' deal to tuck under French company Servier's roof, and UniFirst's sale to Cintas, just to name a handful.
Buy a bunch of these target companies' stocks. Most of these deals will happen -- providing solid returns for investors.
Write to Jacob Sonenshine at jacob.sonenshine@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 25, 2026 17:12 ET (21:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.