【券商聚焦】中金公司:欧美央行降息预期全面逆转 国内政策协同发力对冲通胀风险

金吾财讯
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金吾财讯 | 中金公司表示,近期伊朗局势进一步升级,原油价格再度上涨,欧美经济的滞胀担忧继续升温。上周正值“超级央行周”,美联储、欧央行、英格兰央行集中释放鹰派信号,引发投资者大幅上调货币政策路径预期,期货市场隐含的美联储降息时点已推迟至2027年下半年,2026年甚至存在一定加息预期,欧央行与英格兰央行降息预期也逆转为加息预期。如果海外央行启动加息,将会导致全球宏观流动性由松转紧,引发全球股、债、黄金大幅下跌。油价冲击下的央行政策选择是当前全球资产定价的核心问题,认为市场定价或存在明显预期差。机构指出,中国的供应链相对更有优势,能源结构多元化,且战略储备充足,对原油价格上涨的应对能力相对较强。低通胀环境和低通胀预期下,内需不足仍是主要矛盾。在居民和企业收入预算约束偏紧时,油价上行冲击会抬升能源支出,挤压非能源支出,类似于“加税”。此时,货币政策不宜仅因油价上涨而被动收紧,更应与积极的财政政策协同配合,起到类似“减税”的对冲作用。当前,全球能源价格波动带来的外部供给冲击,客观上为提振通胀预期提供了窗口。若财政政策与货币政策能够协调配合、顺势而为,不仅有助于打破“低通胀”负向循环,更可借此机会将成本推动型的输入性通胀转化为需求支撑下的温和再通胀。考虑到我国通胀绝对水平仍处于相对低位,实行逆周期调节政策面临的约束较少,操作空间更充裕,可考虑结合内外部形势变化,适时加大逆周期调节力度,更好推动预期修复和内需改善。

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