金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示，美伊冲突以来，原油价格大幅上涨，引发市场关于“滞胀”的讨论。通过历史数据回归和投入产出分析，我们发现油价对中国CPI影响弹性系数约为1~2%，对于PPI影响的弹性系数约为5~6%。假设今年油价全年中枢在85~100美元/桶，对应的CPI中枢仍在1.5%以内，输入性通胀对我国的压力相对有限，央行将维持支持性货币政策立场，保持流动性充裕。但如果油价上行超过120美元/桶，CPI中枢或向上突破2%的目标阈值。增长视角看，高油价对中国GDP影响机制相对复杂，模型结果显示油价每上涨10%对中国GDP总量的影响约为-0.09个百分点。
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