金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，近期中东局势扰动带动油价攀升，市场关注电车相对燃油车的经济性边界。我们基于五年TCO成本，在欧洲/东南亚/美国等市场测算油电平价倍数，并与当前油电倍数(基于3.18日原油99美元/桶的价格背景)比较以评估平价进度。结果看，海外油电平价进度呈“欧洲>东南亚>美国”的梯次分布，欧洲及东南亚有望成为油价上行背景下海外电动车渗透率提升的核心增量来源。推荐目标市场电车销量最高的龙头、及欧洲布局较快的公司。研报指出，当前油价中枢抬升、平价进程加快的市场背景为中国汽车品牌带来机遇。机构分析中已迈入油电平价/临近油电平价的国家（如德国、西班牙等）25年累计乘用车销量977万辆，其中纯电车销量137万辆，渗透率约14%。若油价持续高企，研报结合各国渗透率基数/平价进度等因素，给予25%~50%目标渗透率，对应目标电车销量可达400万辆，增量264万辆，具备品牌、渠道和本地化产能先发优势的中国龙头预计将优先受益。
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