MW This map shows a crude ticking time bomb that hits much of the world's oil supply in April

By Myra P. Saefong

The supply shock will run from east to west, says J.P. Morgan

A rolling oil-supply disruption will move westward, "dictated by shipping times," according to J.P. Morgan.

Disruptions to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will unleash a "sequential" shock to global supplies that'll run from east to west, with much of the world taking a hit in April, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan.

The global oil system is "shifting from a flow shock to a stock depletion problem," said J.P. Morgan analysts in a note dated Thursday. It shows the last tanker departing the Strait of Hormuz on Feb. 28, the day the U.S. and Israel launched military attacks on Iran. Traffic through the waterway has been mostly halted since then, though Iran adopted a "calibrated strategy" that has allowed some vessels to pass.

Timing, not just volume, drives the impact, the analysts said, because voyage times "set the clock." The market is due to see a rolling supply disruption unfolding "sequentially rather than simultaneously" - moving westward, "dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories."

'The global system is shifting from a flow shock to a stock depletion problems, where timing - not just volumes - drives the impact.'J.P. Morgan analysts

J.P. Morgan provided a map of looming oil-shock impacts across key parts of the globe, along with a rough timing of the potential hits.

Asia is particularly reliant on Persian Gulf crude and crude products, and it is already "feeling the squeeze" as cargoes before the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have largely dried up, the analysts said. Cargoes from the gulf reach Asia in roughly 10 to 20 days, arriving first in India and later in Northeast Asia, they said.

In April, Southeast Asia's oil demand is expected to fall by about 300,000 barrels per day, but oil losses could climb rapidly, surpassing 2 million barrels per day in May and approaching 3 million barrels per day by June if oil-reserve stock releases remained contained within their respective countries, J.P. Morgan analysts said.

Demand for oil tends to decline as prices rise, and the front-month contract for global benchmark Brent crude (BRNK26) has climbed 49% so far this month to settle Thursday at $108.01 a barrel, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Countries in Asia have been scrambling to conserve energy as the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global supplies.

The Philippine government this week declared a state of national energy emergency, saying the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is resulting in "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.

Next up for the oil shock is likely to be Africa, with effects becoming more pronounced in early April, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. Up to 250,000 barrels per day of oil-demand losses are possible in April if inland stocks are low, they said.

By mid-April, Europe will feel the impact, but the "shock is shaped more by rising costs and competition with Asia than by outright shortages," they said.

The U.S. has longer voyage times, with most oil deliveries likely to stop around April 15, and America also has substantial domestic oil production. That makes the U.S. unlikely to experience direct physical shortages in the near term, they said.

The impact for the U.S. will be felt mainly through higher prices and "dislocations" - changes or disruptions - in refined product markets, instead of through outright scarcity, they said. U.S. benchmark crude (CLK26) traded $10 lower than global Brent, but was still up 41% in March.

As U.S. stocks SPX DJIA COMP slid Thursday, President Donald Trump after the closing bell extended his five-day pause on attacking Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6.

The market is "still expecting President Trump to soon declare victory," commodity strategists at Macquarie wrote, in a late Thursday client note.

They pointed to falling prices for Brent futures contracts as evidence of this view, with prices easing from roughly $110 a barrel to closer to $80 in the months ahead.

That's roughly in line with their view and revised $89-a-barrel forecast for the end of this year. But they also see a roughly 40% chance of an extended conflict that lasts through June, where oil hits $200 and U.S. gas prices jump to about $7 a gallon.

Joy Wiltermuth contributed

-Myra P. Saefong

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March 26, 2026 18:06 ET (22:06 GMT)

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