By Nicole Goodkind

Federal Reserve leaders will be speaking around the country Thursday evening, giving markets their first extended look at how officials are thinking about the economy and monetary policy just over a week after the central bank held interest rates steady and flagged deep uncertainty over the war with Iran.

-Gov. Lisa Cook will lead things off with remarks and a conversation on financial stability at the Yale School of Management at 4 p.m. ET.

-Gov. Stephen Miran will follow at 6:30 p.m. ET with a discussion of the Fed's balance sheet in Miami.

-Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will share his thoughts on the economy in conversation with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan at the Dallas Fed's Global Perspectives speaker series at 7 p.m. ET.

-Gov. Michael Barr will round out the evening with a conversation on the economy in Washington, D.C., at the The Brookings Institution at 7:10 p.m. ET.

Here's what we're listening for:

How worried is the Fed about the oil shock bleeding into core inflation?

At the March meeting, officials bumped their inflation forecasts to 2.7% for 2026, up from 2.4% in December. Chair Jerome Powell said higher energy prices would likely lift near-term inflation, but the bigger question is whether those pressures spill into services and wages. Cook's financial stability remarks could address how the oil shock is rippling through markets and credit conditions.

Does Miran double down on his case for cuts?

The Trump-appointed governor has dissented at every meeting since joining the board in September, the longest streak of back-to-back dissents since 2013. He's projecting four rate cuts this year, arguing the labor market is too soft to justify the current policy rate and that the Fed should look through the energy shock.

Any fresh signals on the labor market?

Powell said at the press conference last week that job creation has slowed to "essentially zero." The dot plot still assumes unemployment holds at 4.4% by year-end, but payrolls data has been weak. Jefferson, in conversation with Logan, who also voted to hold rates steady last week, could offer a window into how the committee is weighing the soft hiring numbers. Barr recently said the labor market is in a "delicate balance" that is vulnerable to negative shocks, so any update on whether that balance is holding also will be notable.

How is the Fed thinking about financial stability risks?

Oil prices have surged since the conflict with Iran began, gasoline has jumped, and markets sold off sharply after the Fed's March decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Investors will be parsing whether Fed officials flag stress in credit markets or funding conditions that could complicate the rate outlook.

While it seems likely that the Fed will hold rates steady for some time, the committee remains divided. The March dot plot showed seven officials expecting no cuts this year, seven penciling in one, and five projecting two or more. Tonight's speeches could help clarify whether there's more clarity on what comes next.

Write to Nicole Goodkind at nicole.goodkind@barrons.com

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March 26, 2026 14:02 ET (18:02 GMT)

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