Biofuel feedstocks price outlook in the United States and European Union, 2026–27

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Navigating the next phase of renewable fuel feedstocks As global on-road and aviation fuel decarbonization efforts continue to evolve, the market for biofuels is shifting from a period of rapid ...

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One of the best stock trading platforms in Singapore.","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/news/2622992920"},"companyName":"Tiger Brokers"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2622992920\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2622992920?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-03-24 12:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2622992920","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Biofuel feedstocks price outlook in the United States and European Union, 2026–27","media":"Fastmarkets","content":"<div>\n<p>Navigating the next phase of renewable fuel feedstocks\nAs global on-road and aviation fuel decarbonization efforts continue to evolve, the market for biofuels is shifting from a period of rapid ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/biofuel-feedstocks-price-outlook-in-the-united-states-and-european-union-2026-27/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fastmarkets_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiofuel feedstocks price outlook in the United States and European Union, 2026–27\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-24 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/biofuel-feedstocks-price-outlook-in-the-united-states-and-european-union-2026-27/><strong>Fastmarkets</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Navigating the next phase of renewable fuel feedstocks\nAs global on-road and aviation fuel decarbonization efforts continue to evolve, the market for biofuels is shifting from a period of rapid ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/biofuel-feedstocks-price-outlook-in-the-united-states-and-european-union-2026-27/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0058720904.USD","symbol_name":"联博国际健康护理基金A","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/biofuel-feedstocks-price-outlook-in-the-united-states-and-european-union-2026-27/","article_id":"2622992920","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"fastmarkets_highlight","url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/biofuel-feedstocks-price-outlook-in-the-united-states-and-european-union-2026-27/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622992920","pubTimestamp":1774324800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fastmarkets_highlight","name":"Fastmarkets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The biofuels market is transitioning from rapid growth to a focus on margin optimization, carbon intensity differentiation, and regulatory compliance, driven by low-carbon policies in the US and EU that are reshaping feedstock demand, trade flows, and pricing dynamics.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"fastmarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0058720904.USD":"联博国际健康护理基金A","IE00B66KJ199.SGD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY  \" A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","DCO":"杜科蒙","LU0566484027.USD":"安本美国小盘成长股","IE0031619046.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0289739699.SGD":"AB INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z4B17.USD":"LEGG MASON ROYCE US SMALL CAP OPPORTUNITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","LU1559883803.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - North American Smaller Companies Fund A Acc SGD-H","LU1059921491.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY \"HB\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4196":"保健护理服务","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UBCP":"联合合众银行","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B7SZL793.SGD":"Legg Mason Royce - US Small Cap Opportunity A Acc SGD-H","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","CI":"信诺保险","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"2026-27年美国和欧盟生物燃料原料价格展望","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CI":1,"DUG":0.9,"DBO":0.9,"DCO":1,"UBCP":1.5,"XOP":0.9},"content_text":"Navigating the next phase of renewable fuel feedstocks\nAs global on-road and aviation fuel decarbonization efforts continue to evolve, the market for biofuels is shifting from a period of rapid expansion to one defined by margin optimization, carbon intensity (CI) differentiation, and regulatory compliance.\nAcross the United States and the European Union, policy frameworks are not only incentivizing renewable fuel production, but also actively reshaping feedstock demand, trade flows, and price relationships. Renewable fuel producers are increasingly competing for certified, auditable, and low-carbon feedstocks, creating widening price differentials between fats and oils that were once less fundamentally linked and correlated.\nThis outlook examines how waste/co-product oils, particularly used cooking oil (UCO) and distillers corn oil (DCO) will be positioned as renewable fuel feedstocks in 2026 and 2027. It explores how regional supply dynamics, global trade corridors, sustainability certification, and inter-oil spreads will shape procurement strategies in the years ahead, with a dedicated focus on the United States and the European Union, two of the most influential renewable fuel markets globally.\nThe shift toward low CI policies reflects a broader move from volume-based renewables support to performance-based decarbonization. Rather than rewarding every gallon equally, programmes increasingly assign value to the measured lifecycle emissions of a fuel, turning carbon intensity into a tradable attribute alongside energy content. This approach elevates the importance of transparent modelling, auditable supply chains, and consistent certification, because small differences in upstream emissions, logistics, and process assumptions can materially change credit generation and realised margins.\nIn practice, low CI policy design is reshaping feedstock hierarchies and investment decisions across renewable diesel and SAF. Waste and residue-based oils with advantaged CI scores attract disproportionate demand, while higher-CI virgin vegetable oils increasingly function as marginal balancing barrels when incentives and modelling assumptions allow. \nOver time, this pushes markets toward tighter verification standards, longer-term contracting, and greater segmentation by origin and sustainability credentials, ultimately widening price differentials between feedstocks that were previously priced more closely on traditional commodity fundamentals.\nFeedstock scarcity has grown in importance\nRenewable diesel and SAF are no longer fringe fuels. Instead, they are a foundation of decarbonization strategies for global on-road and aviation fuels. While demand growth dominates headlines, feedstocks remain one of the largest determinants of project economics.\nFor most hydroprocessed renewable fuel pathways, feedstock costs represent nearly 90% of operating expenses. Small changes in feedstock spreads or CI scores can mean the difference between an economically unsuccessful project and a highly profitable one.\nBecause of the shift to CI-dependent incentive schemes,\n· Waste and residue oils (UCO, DCO) offer CI-dependent incentive and eligibility advantages.\n· Virgin vegetable oils (soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, palm) provide scale and liquidity but face rising sustainability scrutiny.\n· Policy frameworks increasingly reward the lowest-carbon feedstocks, not the cheapest and most abundant.\nThe result is a feedstock market that is more fragmented and more sensitive to regulation than at any point in the past decade.\n\nGlobal policy and certification forces shaping feedstock markets\nRED III: redefining demand in Europe\nThe European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) sets a binding target of 29% renewable energy in transportation by 2030, with specific sub-targets for advanced biofuels and SAF. Unlike earlier iterations of the directive, RED III tightens sustainability criteria and places greater emphasis on traceability, lifecycle emissions, and fraud prevention.\nFor feedstock markets, RED III has several direct implications:\n· Waste-based feedstocks such as UCO and animal fats remain highly favored, particularly when double-counting mechanisms apply.\n· Crop-based biofuels face tighter caps and in some cases are explicitly ineligible for compliance.\n· Auditability is no longer optional. ISCC-aligned certification and verifiable supply chains are prerequisites for market access.\nAs a result, price formation in Europe increasingly reflects not just supply-demand fundamentals, but compliance premiums.\nReFuelEU Aviation: SAF’s spillover effects\nReFuelEU Aviation introduces mandatory SAF blending requirements at EU airports, starting modestly but increasing sharply toward 2030. While SAF volumes remain small relative to road fuels, the policy’s influence on feedstock markets is outsized.\nSAF pathways compete directly with renewable diesel for the same pool of lipid feedstocks. In tight markets, aviation demand effectively sets a floor under waste-oil pricing, particularly for UCO with favorable CI profiles. This competition is expected to intensify through 2026–27 as airlines seek long-term offtake agreements to manage compliance costs.\nEUDR and the sustainability premium\nThe EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) adds another layer of complexity, particularly for palm and soybean oil supply chains. While palm oil’s role in European biofuels has already diminished, EUDR reinforces structural barriers by increasing documentation, monitoring, and liability costs.\nEven for soybean oil, which remains relevant in blended markets, EUDR compliance creates differentiation between origins and suppliers. The net effect is a sustainability premium embedded directly into CIF prices, further decoupling European markets from global benchmarks.\nCertification as a market signal\nCertification systems such as ISCC are no longer back-office requirements. In 2026–27, they function as market signals, influencing pricing, contract structures, and counterparty selection.\nFeedstocks with robust, verifiable certification command higher prices not because of scarcity alone, but because they reduce regulatory and reputational risk for refiners. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in waste-oil markets, where fraud concerns remain elevated.\n\nUnited States: scale, incentives, and CI optimization\nWhy the US market matters\nThe United States is the world’s largest renewable diesel and SAF market, both in current production and capacity. By 2026–27, the market will be shaped by three interconnected forces:\n1. The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which came into effect in 2025 and was amended under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) beginning in 2026.\n2. California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), which continues to generate billions in annual credit value.\n3. A wave of multi-billion-dollar investments in Gulf Coast and West Coast refining capacity that came online over the last five years.\nTogether, these forces have transformed feedstocks from a procurement function into a core strategic lever.\nThe 45Z Effect: CI becomes currency\nThe introduction of the 45Z tax credit marks a structural shift in US renewable fuel economics. Unlike previous incentives, 45Z ties credit value directly to lifecycle carbon intensity, rewarding fuels with lower CI scores.\nFor feedstocks, this has two immediate consequences:\n· Waste oils with low CI scores become more valuable compared to high CI feedstocks like virgin vegetable oils.\n· Refiners face acute pressure to model CI outcomes accurately, including upstream emissions, transport distances, and processing assumptions.\nThis has increased the demand for UCO and DCO while increasing scrutiny on soybean oil pathways, particularly when land-use assumptions are challenged. The OBBB, however, significantly reduce the advantage of using waste-based feedstocks beginning in 2026 by removing indirect land use change penalties for soybean and canola oils, reducing the spread between the credit available for virgin vegetable oil and waste-based feedstocks.\nUCO: scarcity and imports\nUsed cooking oil sits near the top of the US feedstock 45Z credit hierarchy, behind only DCO. Its low CI profile makes it highly attractive under both LCFS and 45Z frameworks. However, domestic and global supply growth is constrained by both limited production and collection networks.\nUCO imports have been reduced significantly by the US credit structure and global market dynamics. Biofuels produced from imported UCO from most of the world is not eligible for 45Z tax credits. Additionally, Chinese UCO, which formerly had supplied much of the US market has been kept within China to feed a growing domestic biofuel market.\n\nDCO: a domestic advantage with limits\nDistillers corn oil offers a partial counterbalance to UCO scarcity. As a byproduct of ethanol production, DCO benefits from:\n· High domestic availability from a mature and stable ethanol market.\n· Established logistics.\n· Very favorable CI scores.\nHowever, DCO supply is ultimately tethered to ethanol production and gasoline blend constraints. As HEFA-based SAF demand grows, competition for DCO is intensifying, potentially pushing prices higher and narrowing its discount to other oils.\nSoybean oil market: the marginal feedstock\nSoybean oil remains the swing feedstock in the US market. It provides scale and liquidity, but its economics are increasingly sensitive to CI modeling assumptions. New 45Z policy under the OBBB reduces the disincentive of using soybean oil in biofuel production, placing it closer to par with UCO, DCO, and tallow.\nEuropean Union: compliance, complexity, and controlled growth\nWhy Europe Is different\nThe European renewable fuel market is defined by regulatory intensity. RED III, ReFuelEU Aviation, CBAM, and EUDR collectively create the most stringent sustainability environment globally.\nFor feedstock markets, this means:\n· Lower tolerance for ambiguity.\n· Higher compliance costs.\n· Greater emphasis on documentation and audit trails.\nUCO in Europe: high demand, high scrutiny\nEurope has long been a premium market for UCO, and that status persists into 2026–27. Demand remains robust across road fuels and SAF pathways, particularly in the Netherlands and Germany.\nHowever, heightened scrutiny around fraud has changed procurement behavior. Buyers increasingly favor:\n· Long-term contracts with established collectors.\n· Origin-specific pricing.\n· Independent verification and traceability.\nThese requirements limit effective supply and help explain why European UCO prices often trade at a significant premium to other regions, even after accounting for freight.\nRapeseed oil market: a regional anchor\nRapeseed oil continues to play a role in European biofuels, particularly in markets with strong domestic production. Its appeal lies in:\n· Familiarity within RED compliance frameworks.\n· Relatively stable certification pathways.\n· Integration with existing agricultural systems.\nHowever, rapeseed oil faces competition from waste-based feedstocks and remains sensitive to crop yields and weather-driven volatility.\nPalm and soybean oil markets: marginal but influential\nWhile palm oil’s direct role in European biofuels is limited, it continues to influence global price relationships. Shifts in palm oil availability or sustainability requirements ripple through soybean and rapeseed markets, affecting relative economics.\nSoybean oil, meanwhile, occupies a narrow but important niche, particularly in blended applications where certification and origin requirements can be met. EUDR compliance costs, however, act as a persistent headwind.\nTrade flows, pricing structures, and inter-oil spreads\nInter-oil spreads and substitution dynamics\nThe ability to substitute between feedstocks underpins margin optimization strategies. Key spreads to watch include:\n· UCO vs soybean oil.\n· DCO vs soybean oil.\n· Rapeseed oil vs soybean oil in Europe.\n· Palm oil vs soybean oil in global trade.\nThese spreads are no longer purely agricultural. They embed policy expectations, CI assumptions, and certification costs, making forward-looking analysis essential.\n\nPrice volatility and risk management\nVegetable oil markets are structurally more volatile than in previous cycles. Contributing factors include:\n· Energy price shocks driven by the US military action in Iran.\n· Policy-driven demand shocks.\n· Weather-related supply disruptions.\n· Trade policy uncertainty.\n· Limited transparency in waste-oil markets.\nFor refiners, managing this volatility requires more than traditional hedging. It demands integrated views of price, policy, and carbon value, supported by independent benchmarks and scenario analysis.\nWhat this means for biofuel producers\nFor renewable fuel producers, the message is clear: feedstock strategy is an important lever in managing costs and revenues.\nSuccess in this environment will depend on:\n· Understanding regional and global policy impacts on price and availability.\n· Monitoring inter-oil spreads in real time.\n· Evaluating feedstocks on a net CI-adjusted basis, not headline price alone.\n· Leveraging transparent, independent benchmarks in opaque markets.\nNavigating this complexity is key to managing margins and insuring consistent physical feedstock supply.\nBringing it all together: a global, data-driven view\nVegetable oils sit at the intersection of agriculture, energy, and policy. In the US and EU alike, their role as renewable fuel feedstocks is being reshaped by mandates, incentives, and sustainability requirements that reward precision over scale.\nAs the industry moves forward, the winners will be those who treat feedstocks not as commodities, but as strategic assets, optimized through data, insight, and rigorous analysis.\n Fastmarkets Agriculture‘s comprehensive feedstock prices include UCO (US Gulf), Bleachable Fancy Tallow (Chicago), RBD Soybean Oil and many others currently used by the industry as benchmarks for contract negotiations. Using our price data, you can secure favorable terms with feedstock suppliers.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}